尿素日报：国内供需主导-20260305

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Urea prices showed a pattern of opening low and rising, followed by an afternoon correction. Quotes remained stable, but transaction prices softened slightly. With the resumption of gas - based plants, daily production reached around 220,000 tons. The inventory of urea decreased by 6.62% this period. Although a large - scale urea plant in Qatar has stopped production and there are shipping issues in some regions, the international price has no impact on the domestic market in the short term. Due to the nitrogen association's guiding price and strong price - holding intention of upstream factories during the farming season, the urea market will have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened low and rose, then corrected in the afternoon. Quotes were stable, but transaction prices softened slightly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were still in the range of 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [1][5]. - The daily production of urea reached around 220,000 tons with the resumption of gas - based plants, and there were no long - term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. The start - up load of compound fertilizer plants increased, but the growth rate was lower year - on - year due to environmental inspections in Hebei. The inventory of urea decreased, mainly because of the continued agricultural demand and increased pick - up of goods by industrial demand. The inventory in Shandong and Henan, the main delivery areas, decreased, with an overall reduction of 6.62% this period [1]. - The 5.8 - million - ton - per - year urea plant of Qatar Energy Company has stopped production. The urea plants in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates are operating normally, but shipping is not smooth. However, since there is no chance of export liberalization in the short term, the international urea price does not affect the domestic market. The price is suppressed by the nitrogen association's guiding price, and upstream factories have a strong intention to hold prices during the farming season, with smooth terminal sales. There is no short - term driving force, and urea will have a narrow - range adjustment [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,818 yuan/ton, opened low and rose, then corrected in the afternoon, and finally closed at 1,814 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.71%. The trading volume was 248,510 lots, a decrease of 12,723 lots. In the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 6,158 lots, and short positions decreased by 9,778 lots. Among them, Huatai Futures had a net long position of + 1,671 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of + 1,197 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of + 2,158 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of - 1,673 lots [2]. - Spot: Quotes remained stable, but transaction prices softened slightly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were still in the range of 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [5]. - Warehouse receipts: On March 5, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 1,275, the same as the previous trading day [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes rose, while the futures closing price fell. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was 36 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton) [8]. - Supply data: On March 5, 2026, the daily production of urea in China was 220,600 tons, an increase of 170 tons compared with the previous day, and the start - up rate was 88.42% [9]. - Enterprise inventory data: As of March 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, an increase of 0.59 days compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.29% [13]. - Downstream data: From February 27 to March 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.02%, a decrease of 4.77 percentage points compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.45%, a decrease of 6.46 percentage points compared with last week [15].