热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating and Weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the hot - rolled coil futures decreased in positions and oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue this trend in the short term. The short - term support is near the previous low, and the medium - term pressure is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the hot - rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. However, the improvement of export profit, the production resilience of steel mills, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downward space. Future focus should be on the inventory depletion speed in mid - to - late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply - side production [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Thursday was 389,600 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 5,552 lots. The short - term average line fell below the 5 - day moving average of around 3,214, and the medium - term pressure of the 30 - day moving average at 3,256 and the 60 - day moving average at 3,269 still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 21 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 301.11 million tons, a decrease of 8.50 million tons (-2.75%) compared to the previous period, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 281.57 million tons, an increase of 13.20 million tons (+4.92%) compared to the previous period, showing a steady recovery in consumption [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (+6.78%) compared to the previous period, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.70 million tons (-4.96%) compared to the previous period, indicating inventory depletion in mills. The total inventory was 471.69 million tons, an increase of 14.68 million tons (+3.21%) compared to the previous period, showing that the overall inventory was still increasing [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arranging special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, strengthening infrastructure and "two new" project support, and boosting medium - to - long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not seen substantial improvement, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - Bearish factors: slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]