鸡蛋日报-20260305

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Due to better profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, slowing down overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg price weakening the overall reduction, it is recommended to short the June contract on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Market: JD01 closed at 3633, up 18 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3396, up 31; JD09 closed at 3798, up 18. The 01 - 05 spread was 237, down 13; the 05 - 09 spread was - 402, up 13; the 09 - 01 spread was 165, unchanged. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soymeal also had corresponding changes [2]. - Spot Market: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.89 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.07 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. Most national mainstream prices were stable, with some areas seeing price drops or stability. The average price of culled chickens was 4.88 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [2][4]. - Profit Calculation: The profit per chicken was - 2.47 yuan, down 1.54 yuan from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 4.88 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2411 yuan, up 8 yuan; the average price of soymeal was 3126 yuan, unchanged; the compound feed for egg - laying chickens was 2.63 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2]. 2. Fundamental Information - Egg Price: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.89 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.07 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. Most national mainstream prices were stable, with price drops in some areas [4]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a 3.4% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly output of chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [4]. - Culled Chicken: From February 26th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 8.78 million, a 42% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 501 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales: As of the week of February 26th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 4278 tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [6]. - Profit: As of February 26th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.35 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 26th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.85 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 1.27 yuan per chicken from the previous week [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 26th, the production - link weekly average inventory was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the circulation - link weekly average inventory was 1.18 days, a decrease of 0.08 days from the previous week [6]. 3. Trading Logic - Due to better profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, slowing down overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg price weakening the overall reduction, it is recommended to short the June contract on rallies [7]. 4. Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see.