2026年03月05日有色金属日报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆★ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: な女女 [1] - Lithium Carbonate: な女女 [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: 女女女 [1] Core Views - The copper market is cautious about the resilience around 100,000. High inventory and uncertain situations may drag down copper prices to test the moving - average support [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is expected to widen under geopolitical risks. Alumina is expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are gradually improving, but the actual destocking rhythm needs attention. It is advisable to wait for policy and data guidance and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Aluminum prices are fluctuating at a low level due to high inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the domestic aluminum destocking rhythm after the full resumption of downstream production [5]. - The nickel market lacks independent drivers and is gradually weakening following external sentiment [6]. - The tin market's supply is slowly changing. It is advisable to hold out - of - the - money short - call options and pay attention to the MA60 moving average [7]. - The lithium carbonate market has a high degree of short - term uncertainty. It is necessary to pay attention to risk prevention and control [8]. - The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental support, and the price increase space may be limited [9]. - The polysilicon market is in a game between expectations and reality. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and the spot transaction situation in March should be focused on [10]. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper oscillated with a negative line below the moving - average intensive area. The domestic Shanghai - Guangdong discounts narrowed to 105 and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The SMM social inventory increased by 1.72 million tons to 57.72 million tons. The market is waiting for the key US indicators [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose today. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 140, 290, and 180 yuan respectively. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 2.7 million tons to 125.6 million tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 39.8 million tons. Qatar Aluminum will shut down 640,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity within the month due to natural gas shortage [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum is expected to widen under geopolitical risks. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and the over - supply situation has improved slightly, but there are still some negative factors [2]. Zinc - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still tense, and the trading in the non - ferrous metal sector is generally dull. The SMM zinc social inventory continues to rise, domestic mines are resuming production, and the downstream start - up has fully recovered. It is necessary to wait for policy and data guidance and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined, and the market trading was active. The Jinchuan premium was 7,100 yuan, the imported nickel discount was 150 yuan, and the electrowinning nickel discount was 250 yuan. The nickel market lacks independent drivers and is gradually weakening [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with a positive line, with a large amplitude. The supply side is slowly changing. It is advisable to hold out - of - the - money short - call options and pay attention to the MA60 moving average [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillated and corrected. The total market inventory decreased, but the destocking speed slowed down. The weekly output in February decreased by about 500 - 1,500 tons compared with that in January. The short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rebounded above 8,500 yuan/ton. However, the demand is weak and the supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in March. The price increase space may be limited [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures opened high and closed low, slightly falling to 42,280 yuan/ton. There is an expectation of destocking in the industry. The market is in a game between expectations and reality and is sensitive to the spot transaction price. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [10].