黑色金属日报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 螺纹: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 热卷: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 铁矿: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 焦炭: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - 焦煤: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - 硅锰: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - 硅铁: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a shrinking and volatile pattern, with the overall weak domestic demand and high steel exports. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with an improved demand but a strong expectation of supply surplus. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the overall market sentiment and the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and may rise. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are likely to be strongly volatile, affected by international conflicts and policy expectations [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuates. The apparent demand for rebar continues to recover slowly, production increases, and inventory accumulates. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, and inventory accumulates with greater pressure. The iron - water production has rebounded after the Spring Festival, but the recovery may be slow due to poor steel mill profits and production - restriction expectations during the conference. The domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is cautious, and the market continues to shrink and fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rises. The global shipment volume is high, and the domestic port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand has improved marginally, but the expectation of supply surplus is still strong. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost. The market is expected to be volatile, and policy signals around the important conference should be noted [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuates. The first - round price cut has basically been implemented. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is at a low level. The coke futures price is at a premium, and the market expects "anti - involution" policies. The price may rise driven by coking coal, and geopolitical conflicts should be noted [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuates. Geopolitical conflicts may cause concerns about the coal - chemical industry. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1492 vehicles. The terminal inventory has significantly decreased and may need to be replenished after the Spring Festival. The total coking coal inventory has decreased significantly. The coking coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market expects "anti - involution" policies. The price has changed from a weak state, and geopolitical conflict news should be noted [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuates. International conflicts are beneficial to the cost of silicon manganese by affecting the manganese ore shipping cost. The spot manganese ore price has slightly increased, and the port inventory is increasing. The iron - water production is slowly increasing, and the weekly production of silicon manganese slightly increases. The inventory slightly increases. The market has strong expectations for the next - month's conference policy, and international conflict news should be noted. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuates. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the semi - coke price has slightly decreased. The main production areas are still in a loss state. The iron - water production is at a low level, and the export demand is over 30,000 tons. The metal magnesium production is increasing, and the demand has resilience. The supply changes little, and the inventory slightly decreases. The market has strong expectations for the next - month's conference policy, and international conflict news should be noted. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [8]