股市隐波整体回落，债市曲线整体?平

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the stock market's implied volatility declined, and the bond market curve flattened. The equity market showed pressure in the afternoon, the implied volatility of index options decreased, and the bond market curve flattened [1]. - For stock index futures, the resource stocks + technology sector remains the absolute main line for the year, but it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in economic data and geopolitical situations. For index options, it is advisable to continue buying options for defense as the market's concerns persist. For bond futures, the market may be volatile in the short - term, and strategies like arbitrage should be considered [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Viewpoint: Pressure emerged in the afternoon [1][7]. - Logic: The equity market rose first and then fell on Thursday. The external environment improved the morning sentiment, but the afternoon saw a callback. The two - market trading volume was about 2.4 trillion, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment. The policy supports anti - involution and technology security, with resource + technology as the annual main line. However, the verification of economic data and geopolitical situations are uncertain [1][7]. - Operation Suggestion: Reduce positions to a wait - and - see state [7]. Index Options - Viewpoint: Implied volatility declined overall [2][7]. - Logic: The option ratio PCR reached a high the previous day, and the market rebounded on Thursday. The intraday implied volatility was negatively correlated with the underlying. The decrease in market momentum in the afternoon led to the implied volatility hitting the bottom and then rising, indicating that the market's concerns have not completely subsided. The skewness of some varieties increased, and call option positions decreased, possibly reflecting the profit - taking of option - buying funds [2][7]. - Operation Suggestion: Continue to use option - buying for defense, and consider switching to in - the - money options to hedge [2][7]. Bond Futures - Viewpoint: The bond market curve flattened [3][7][8]. - Logic: The main bond futures contracts fell, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly fluctuated, and the yields of ultra - long - term bonds declined slightly. The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal, the improvement of risk appetite in the equity market, and the moderate fiscal expansion scale in 2026 all affected the bond market. The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special bonds in 2026 is the same as last year, alleviating the market's concerns about ultra - long - term bond supply [3][7][8]. - Operation Suggestion: The trend strategy is to expect volatility. For the hedging strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For the basis strategy, focus on ultra - long - term arbitrage opportunities. For the curve strategy, pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y spread in the short - term [8].