2026年3月6日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical risks push up the demand for gold as a traditional safe - haven asset, but the revised downward expectation of Fed rate cuts due to rising inflation expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and profit - taking by funds suppress the performance of precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged considering multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation demand, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with greater volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume: For沪金2606, the closing price was 1155.06, down 1.14 (-0.10%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 66063 and an open interest of 108084. For沪金2604, the closing price was 1152.00, down 1.06 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 233912 and an open interest of 125041. For沪银2606, the closing price was 21369, down 209 (-0.97%), with a trading volume of 412744 and an open interest of 173457. For沪银2604, the closing price was 21639, down 215 (-0.98%), with a trading volume of 412856 and an open interest of 143059 [2]. - Spot Premium: The spot premium of沪金2606 was -6.5, and that of沪金2604 was -3.44. The spot premium of沪银2606 was -301, and that of沪银2604 was -571 [2]. Spot Market - Price and Change: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1148.56, down 4.39 (-0.38%) from the previous day. The closing price of London gold was 5084.63, down 35.91 (-0.70%). The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21068, down 493 (-2.29%). The closing price of London silver was 82.28, down 1.26 (-1.50%) [2]. - Ratio: The current value of沪金2606 - 沪金2604 was 3.06, and the previous value was 3.14. The current value of沪银2606 - 沪银2604 was -270.00, and the previous value was -276.00. The current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) was 54.52, and the previous value was 53.47. The current value of the Shanghai gold/London gold ratio was 1.02, and the previous value was 1.02. The current value of the Shanghai silver/London silver ratio was 1.15, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. Inventory - Change: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 105,033 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 22102 kg to 272,721 kg. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 59808 ounces to 33,100,294 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 877946 ounces to 351,341,925 ounces [2]. Related Derivatives - Value and Change: The current value of the US dollar index was 99.04, up 0.24 from the previous day. The S&P 500 index was 6,830.71, down 38.79. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, up 0.04%. The Brent crude oil price was 84.33, up 1.75. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9003, down 0.0117. The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 5 tons to 1,076 tons. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 138 tons to 15,810 tons. The CFTC speculator net long position in gold decreased by 738 to 159,177, and in silver decreased by 1743 to 22,260 [2]. Macro Information - Oil Market: The US has issued a 30 - day temporary exemption to allow the sale of Russian oil currently at sea to India to ease pressure on the global oil market. US President Trump said he would take further measures to relieve pressure on the oil market [3]. - Geopolitical: Trump mentioned that after the Iran conflict subsides, the US will turn its attention to Cuba. He also said he needs to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader and does not accept the son of the assassinated supreme leader as the successor [3]. - Policy: The CME will lower the initial margin ratio of COMEX100 gold futures from 9% to 7% and that of COMEX5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective from the close on March 6, 2026 [3]. - Monetary Policy: European Central Bank President Lagarde said that monetary policy will be decided on a meeting - by - meeting basis according to data without a preset stance [3].