铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the escalation of military actions between the US, Israel, and Iran may last for months, leading to increased uncertainties in the energy and shipping markets. Rising oil prices strengthen inflation expectations, causing the market to postpone the expected timing of the Fed's first interest rate cut to September and expect only one cut this year. In the domestic market, the Two Sessions set the GDP target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, and A - shares are expected to maintain a volatile recovery in the short term [2][3]. - For precious metals, the adjustment is not over yet, with the gold price trend remaining stronger than the silver price, and the gold - silver ratio continuing to correct upwards [5]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term due to factors such as the impact of the US - Iran conflict on inflation and the tight supply pattern [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate widely in the short term, with geopolitical risks being the core driving factor [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to have a short - term preference for oscillation, but there is still significant upward pressure in the long term [10]. - Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with cost support and market sentiment being easily affected by news [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation, with macro factors being the main driver and high inventory still exerting pressure [12]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain low - level wide - range oscillation due to high inventory and limited demand improvement [14]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain high - level adjustment, with the market focusing on inflation and the supply improvement expectation increasing [15]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain oscillating, with the cost - end support weakening and the global nickel supply - demand structure shifting to a tight balance [16][17]. - Steel prices are expected to show an oscillating trend, with production remaining stable, apparent demand recovering, and inventory continuing to accumulate [19]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and stabilize, with supply and demand both affected by factors such as the Two Sessions and steel mill production restrictions [20]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the profitability of coking enterprises turning positive and the market affected by factors such as steel mill production and policy support [21]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate, with the US soybean export increasing and the South American harvest gradually materializing [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by rising oil prices and expected inventory decline [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The military actions between the US, Israel, and Iran have escalated, with Iran refusing to negotiate and claiming the ability to counter - attack. The Asian energy market has entered an emergency state, and rising oil prices have strengthened inflation expectations, causing the market to postpone the expected timing of the Fed's first interest rate cut to September and expect only one cut this year. The US stock market closed down, the US dollar index oscillated around 99, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.13%, gold, silver, and copper closed down, and oil prices rose by more than 3%. Attention is paid to the US February non - farm payroll report [2]. - Domestic: The Two Sessions set the GDP target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, the inflation target at 2%, the budget fiscal deficit at 5.89 trillion yuan (with a deficit rate of 4%), the local special bond quota at 4.4 trillion yuan, and issued 1.6 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds. The policy focuses on expanding domestic demand, cultivating new drivers, and developing technology, while maintaining a moderately loose monetary environment. A - shares are expected to maintain a volatile recovery in the short term [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures prices declined. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. The Fed's hawkish signals, inflation pressure, and strong employment data have strengthened the expectation of no interest rate cut, putting pressure on precious metal prices. The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, increasing concerns about energy supply and inflation, and reducing the possibility of interest rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18 policy meeting. The CME has lowered the margin for gold and silver. The adjustment of precious metals is not over yet, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to correct upwards. Investors are closely watching the US February employment report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to oscillate, and LME copper adjusted to around $12,800 to seek support. The domestic spot market for electrolytic copper improved, and the LME inventory rose to 261,000 tons, while the COMEX inventory remained at 600,000 tons. The US - Iran conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, increasing inflation expectations and possibly delaying the Fed's interest rate cut, which has cooled market risk appetite and put pressure on the metal market. The domestic government work report focuses on cultivating new - quality productive forces. The copper supply pattern remains tight, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,815 yuan per ton, up 1.31%, and the LME closed at $3,292.5 per ton, down 1.29%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 72,000 tons to 1.229 million tons, and the aluminum rod inventory in the main domestic consumption areas increased by 5,500 tons to 403,500 tons. The core driving factor for aluminum prices is geopolitical risks, and the repeated news has intensified market fluctuations. The passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and the risk of supply interruption has not been eliminated. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate widely in the short term [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,800 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The national average spot price of alumina rose by 5 yuan to 2,673 yuan per ton, with a discount of 100 yuan per ton. The increase in the cost expectation driven by the limit - up of caustic soda futures and the reduction in supply due to the production cut of an alumina plant in Guizhou have led to a short - term preference for oscillation. However, there is still significant upward pressure in the long term due to large new and potential复产 capacities [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 23,420 yuan per ton, up 1.23%. The cost support is significant, and casting aluminum enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, the market sentiment is easily affected by news due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first rose and then fell during the day and continued to decline at night, and LME zinc closed down. The market supply increased, and downstream demand was weak, with the inventory continuing to accumulate. Rising oil prices have affected the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the US dollar is strong, which suppresses zinc prices. However, the cost support is still strong, and the policy is positive. Zinc prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally during the day and declined at night, and LME lead closed down. Due to equipment maintenance and policy control, the resumption of some secondary lead smelters has been postponed to April, and the supply pressure has been relieved. However, the downstream battery factories and dealers have high inventory, and the demand for replenishment is weak. The social inventory remains at a high level, and lead prices are expected to maintain low - level wide - range oscillation [14]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin dived in the afternoon, stabilized at the end of the session, and oscillated narrowly at night, and LME tin oscillated. The concern about the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz has eased, and the US Treasury will announce measures to deal with rising energy prices. The supply improvement expectation has increased, and the support from the supply side has weakened. However, the decline in futures prices has increased the downstream replenishment expectation, limiting the adjustment space of futures prices. Tin prices are expected to maintain high - level adjustment [15]. 3.10 Nickel - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel maintained oscillation, and LME nickel adjusted to around 17,300 to seek support. The global energy crisis concern has cooled down in the short term, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined. Although the Philippines is in the rainy season, the nickel ore export has not decreased significantly. Considering the supply increase after the rainy season, the upward trend of nickel ore prices may not be sustainable. The cost - end support has weakened, and the global nickel supply - demand structure will shift to a tight balance. Nickel prices are expected to remain oscillating [16][17]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading volume was 60,000 tons. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, the total inventory increased by 5.7%, and the consumption of building materials increased by 90.8%. The Two Sessions are in line with expectations, and the macro - policy is positive. However, the real estate market is still at risk, and the terminal expectation is moderate. Steel production remains stable, the apparent demand recovers, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Steel prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [19]. 3.12 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port spot trading volume was 720,000 tons. The supply from overseas increased slightly, and the arrival decreased. The inventory pressure is still large. The macro - expectation has landed, and the steel mills in the north are under production restrictions, so the demand is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and stabilize [20]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The profitability of coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production has remained stable. However, the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased, and there is an expectation of price cuts for coke. The coal production in the origin has returned to normal, and the supply of coking coal is loose. The demand from steel mills in Tangshan and other places is limited, and they mainly consume inventory. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. 3.14 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.28% to 2,843 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.13% to 2,318 yuan per ton. The US soybean export increased by 383,500 tons this week. The production estimates of soybeans in South America have been adjusted slightly, and the supply and export are increasing. The import cost of soybeans supports the domestic market, but the upward space is limited. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 1.28% to 9,070 yuan per ton. The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in diesel prices, and the palm oil price is at a discount compared to diesel. The threat of interrupted vegetable oil transportation through the Middle East route has supported the palm oil price. The market expects the inventory of Malaysian palm oil to continue to decline at the end of February, and India may increase palm oil purchases. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [24].