山金期货黑色板块日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector: The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and a rapid increase in inventory from a low level. Although the impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices on black commodities is limited, it has a certain boost to the overall market sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak, and the expectation for the fundamentals is pessimistic. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, indicating strong support below. Due to the current low valuation, the downside space may be limited [1]. - For the iron ore sector: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills remains stable, and the daily average hot metal output has rebounded from a low level. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot Roll - Market situation: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the sharp rise in crude oil prices has a limited impact on black commodities but boosts the overall market sentiment. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and increasing inventory [1]. - Operation suggestions: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [1]. - Data summary: - Price: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and the previous week. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have also decreased [1]. - Basis and spread: The basis and spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - Production: The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased slightly, and the production of electric - arc furnace steel mills has changed, with the output of electric - arc furnace rebar increasing significantly [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory of the five major varieties has increased, while the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly. The inventory of billets in the Tangshan area has increased [1]. - Trading volume and apparent demand: The trading volume in the spot market has decreased, and the apparent demand has increased [1]. - Futures warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts for rebar has decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil has increased [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Market situation: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products remains stable, and the hot metal output has rebounded from a low level. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [3]. - Operation suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset, avoid chasing up or selling down. When the futures price is oscillating and building a bottom, try to go long at a low position with a light position [3]. - Data summary: - Price: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and the previous week [4]. - Basis and spread: The basis and futures monthly spread of iron ore have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - Shipment and freight: The shipment volume from Australia has decreased, while that from Brazil has increased. The freight rates and exchange rates have also changed [4]. - Arrival and inventory: The arrival volume of iron ore has increased slightly, the daily average port clearance volume has decreased, and the port inventory has continued to rise [4]. - Production: The output of domestic iron ore mines has decreased [4]. - Futures warehouse receipts: The number of futures warehouse receipts has decreased [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Steel production restrictions: During the important national meetings in 2026, steel enterprises are required to implement phased emission reduction control, with some steel enterprises having new blast furnace overhauls and production reduction plans [6]. - Coking coal production: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, and the daily output and inventory of raw coal have also increased [6]. - Real estate policy: The draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market and build a new real - estate development model [6]. - Iron ore procurement: Chinese state - owned iron ore purchasers have expanded the procurement restrictions on new seaborne iron ore goods from BHP due to a long - term contract dispute [8]. - Coking plant profitability: The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants across the country is 17 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [8]. - Glass inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has continued to increase, approaching a three - year high [8].