热轧卷板周度数据-20260306

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both weakened. The production of plate steel mills has declined, with the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreasing by 85,000 tons week-on-week. The inventory has reached a high level, and the supply pressure has not been effectively alleviated, which continues to suppress steel prices. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils has also weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 97,400 tons week-on-week, significantly lower than the same period last year. The downstream cold-rolled contradictions have not been resolved, and the Middle East conflict has disrupted steel export demand, so the demand resilience of hot-rolled coils will weaken. Under the current high-inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils remains, while the demand resilience is weakening. With the simultaneous decline in supply and demand, the contradictions in the hot-rolled coil market continue to accumulate, and prices will continue to face pressure. Under the logic of weak reality, it is expected that hot-rolled coils will maintain a downward trend in search of a bottom. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 3.0111 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,000 tons and a decrease of 278,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.13 percentage points and a decrease of 0.28 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 885,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 76,000 tons and an increase of 316,000 tons compared to the same period last year [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 2.8157 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 97,400 tons and a decrease of 320,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The downstream cold-rolled contradictions have not been resolved, and the Middle East conflict has disrupted steel export demand, so the demand resilience of hot-rolled coils will weaken [1][3]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 4.7169 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 195,400 tons and an increase of 420,300 tons compared to the same period last year. The in-plant inventory is 900,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 47,000 tons and a decrease of 18,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The social inventory is 3.8161 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 242,400 tons and an increase of 438,800 tons compared to the same period last year [1].