东海证券晨会纪要-20260306

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the 2026 government work report is a slight adjustment of the GDP growth target to a more pragmatic range of 4.5%-5%, allowing for policy flexibility and laying a solid foundation for the later stages of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, with a new allocation of 100 billion yuan for fiscal-financial collaboration to stimulate consumption, and a focus on investment in key areas such as new-type urbanization and human development [11][12] - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a narrow deficit rate maintained at around 4%, and an increase in special local government bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating a continued high level of fiscal expenditure [8][9] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase trend, driven by demand from AI applications, AIOT, and other segments, with a focus on structural opportunities in key components and storage [13][15] - Global semiconductor demand is improving, particularly in TWS headsets, wearable devices, and AI servers, with expectations for continued recovery in March 2026 [13][16] - The semiconductor sector's overall price increase is expected to persist, with storage prices rising and supply-demand dynamics remaining favorable despite high inventory levels [15][17]