五矿期货能源化工日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has increased and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be mainly operated with a mid - term layout. The oil price has reached the upper limit of the critical range [2]. - For methanol, it has fully included the current geopolitical premium, and there is no major short - term supply - demand contradiction, so it is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. - For urea, although the downstream demand has a positive expectation, the supply - demand situation is prosperous, and the marginal impact is mostly about quotas. There is no significant positive potential in terms of quotas, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming, so it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - For rubber, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. It rebounds in the short term driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [20]. - For polyethylene, the futures price rises. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply - side support for the price has returned, and the demand - side starts to recover seasonally [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price falls. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand rebounds seasonally. It is recommended to go long the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, the short - term inventory accumulation pattern will turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, and there is an opportunity to go long following the crude oil price in the medium term [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle. There is still room for the valuation to rise in the medium term, and it is recommended to go long following PX and crude oil at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of reducing production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is an opportunity to go long at low prices due to the tension in the Iranian situation [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 40.10 yuan/barrel, a 6.43% increase, at 664.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 50.00 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase, at 3845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 12.00 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease, at 4315.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; widen the price spread of different oil grades in North and South Africa and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices before the mid - year production increase in Libya; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - Brent inter - regional spread [3]. Methanol - Market Information: The spot price in Jiangsu changed by 50 yuan/ton, Henan by - 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 91.00 yuan/ton, at 2487 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 150 yuan [5]. - Strategy: Since methanol has fully included the current geopolitical premium and there is no major short - term supply - demand contradiction, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. Urea - Market Information: The spot price in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, and Henan by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, at 1814 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy: Although the downstream demand has a positive expectation, the supply - demand situation is prosperous, and the marginal impact is mostly about quotas. There is no significant positive potential in terms of quotas, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming, so it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price declined slightly. The market is driven by macro and capital factors. The future trend of rubber is facing challenges. The long side believes in the limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, the seasonal rise in the second half of the year, and the improvement of China's demand; the short side believes in the uncertain macro - expectation, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of February 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, up 18.78 percentage points from last week and down 36.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, up 22.04 percentage points from last week and down 43.79 percentage points from the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous month. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons compared with before the holiday [10][11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 21 yuan, at 5016 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4820 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 196 (+39) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 120 (+10) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2100 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 800 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 634 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous month; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous month, and the ethylene method was 83.2%, a 0.7% increase from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a 17.1% increase from the previous month. The in - factory inventory was 50.4 million tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 million tons (+1) [15]. - Strategy: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply - side reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - peak season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has stimulated short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the price of caustic soda has rebounded. Overall, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. It rebounds in the short term driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Information: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 7251 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the basis of pure benzene was - 236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 8656 yuan/ton, an increase of 443 yuan/ton; the basis was 44 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 104.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 79.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 186.45 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, an increase of 3.16%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 30.45%, a decrease of 2.53%; the operating rate of PS was 49.40%, a decrease of 0.30%, the operating rate of EPS was 12.18%, a decrease of 12.83%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.70%, an increase of 1.80% [19]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of styrene is fluctuating at a high level. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the overall operating rate of three S products is decreasing. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [20]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 7393 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, a 62 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 53.62 million tons, a decrease of 4.35 million tons from the previous month, and the inventory of traders was 5.77 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 152 yuan/ton, a 67 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month [21]. - Strategy: The futures price rises. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply - side support for the price has returned, and the demand - side starts to recover seasonally [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 7458 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7525 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The basis was 67 yuan/ton, a 173 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 65.51 million tons, a decrease of 8.48 million tons from the previous month, the inventory of traders was 21.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.71 million tons from the previous month, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was - 65 yuan/ton, an 86 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month. The PP5 - 9 spread was 277 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [23][24]. - Strategy: The futures price falls. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand rebounds seasonally. It is recommended to go long the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract rose 256 yuan, at 8344 yuan. The PX CFR rose 28 US dollars, at 1055 US dollars. The basis was 47 yuan (- 47), and the 5 - 7 spread was 192 yuan (+92). The operating load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease from the previous month; the Asian operating load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease from the previous month. A 2.5 - million - ton plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, a 770,000 - ton plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance, and a 550,000 - ton plant of GS was operating at a reduced load. The PTA operating load was 81%, a 4.4% increase from the previous month. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 415,000 tons of PX to China in February, a year - on - year increase of 7,000 tons. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 million tons, a 190,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation cost, PXN was 251 US dollars (- 31), South Korea's PX - MX was 140 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha cracking spread was 171 US dollars (+35) [27]. - Strategy: The short - term inventory accumulation pattern will turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, and there is an opportunity to go long following the crude oil price in the medium term [28]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 126 yuan, at 5820 yuan. The East China spot price rose 195 yuan, at 5800 yuan. The basis was - 34 yuan (+12), and the 5 - 9 spread was 182 yuan (+84). The PTA operating load was 81%, a 4.4% increase from the previous month. The downstream operating load was 83.5%, a 4% increase from the previous month. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 2.597 million tons, a 95,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 58 yuan to 295 yuan, and the processing fee on the disk decreased by 42 yuan to 346 yuan [30]. - Strategy: It is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle. There is still room for the valuation to rise in the medium term, and it is recommended to go long following PX and crude oil at low prices [31]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan, at 4184 yuan. The East China spot price rose 86 yuan, at 4132 yuan. The basis was - 31 yuan (+21), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (+31). The supply - side operating load of ethylene glycol was 74.1%, a 4.9% decrease from the previous month. Among them, the operating load of syngas - based production was 83%, a 1% decrease from the previous month, and the operating load of ethylene - based production was 69.2%, a 7% decrease from the previous month. Some plants were under maintenance or operating at a reduced load. The downstream operating load was 83.5%, a 4% increase from the previous month. The forecast of imported arrivals was 108,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on March 4 was 16,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.002 million tons, a 20,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 1904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 772 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was - 273 yuan. The price of ethylene increased to 800 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal rebounded to 670 yuan [32].