纸浆：震荡运行20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand, lack of cost - pass - through, and high port inventories [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Market (05 Contract): The daily closing price of pulp futures was 5,250 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan from the previous day), and the night - closing price was 5,262 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan). The trading volume was 236,632 lots (down 77,301 lots), the open interest was 253,109 lots (down 4,405 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 153,011 tons (unchanged), and the net position of the top 20 members was - 35,872 lots (down 1,095 lots) [3]. - Spread Data: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract was 50 (up 46), the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) was - 650 (down 4), the month - spread of SP03 - SP05 was - 20 (up 44) [3]. - Spot Market: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Northwood and Cariboo were 5,550 yuan/ton, Silver Star was 5,300 yuan/ton, and its international price was 710 US dollars/ton. The domestic prices of broad - leaf pulp such as Golden and Star were 4,600 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star was 620 US dollars/ton. The domestic price of chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of unbleached pulp (Venus) was 4,850 yuan/ton, with an international price of 620 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.2 Industry News - This week, the imported pulp market showed a stable and volatile trend. As of Thursday, the average spot -含税 price of mainstream coniferous pulp was 5,260 yuan/ton, a 0.2% decrease from the previous period; the average spot -含税 price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,600 yuan/ton, a 0.5% increase; the average spot -含税 price of unbleached pulp was 4,850 yuan/ton, a 1.0% decrease; and the average spot -含税 price of chemimechanical pulp was 3,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [4]. 3.3 Reasons for Price Fluctuations - The increase in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp provided cost support, but the downstream procurement after the festival had not started, and the demand for major paper types such as household paper was weak, resulting in poor cost - pass - through and insufficient upward price momentum. - Although the European pulp mill shutdown plan attracted attention, market participants reacted indifferently, and the market focus was on the recovery rhythm of downstream demand rather than the expected supply contraction. - The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, and the absolute value was at a high level, suppressing market sentiment [6].