贵金属日报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 6, 2026, precious metals weakened. The decline in precious metals may be closely related to the significant increase in US Treasury yields. In the context of the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East, US inflation data has not declined. The market is worried about the inflationary pressure brought by the rise in global crude oil prices, leading to an upward adjustment of long - term interest rate expectations and a downward adjustment of near - term interest rate cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond have increased the market's preference for liquidity, which has temporarily suppressed precious metals. The large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank to sell gold reserves to raise about $13 billion for defense spending also pushed down the price of gold in the short term [2]. - The CME's adjustment of gold and silver futures margins may attract capital inflows. The initial margin of COMEX 100 gold futures has been reduced from 9% to 7%, and that of COMEX 5000 silver futures has been reduced from 18% to 14%, effective as of the close on March 6, 2026. In February, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion, achieving continuous capital inflows for nine months and setting the strongest annual start on record. The total global gold asset management scale (AUM) reached a record high of $701 billion, and the global holding volume reached 4,171 tons [3]. - In the context of the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East, the rise in crude oil prices has pushed up the market's inflation expectations. Coupled with the fact that US inflation data has not declined, the market has adjusted long - term interest rate expectations upwards and near - term interest rate cut expectations downwards, which has promoted an increase in the preference for capital liquidity and temporarily suppressed precious metals. However, the subsequent reduction of gold and silver margins by the CME may attract capital inflows, and the market may experience a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20,500 - 22,000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 1.35% to 1,135.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21,305.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.95% to $5,085.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.03% to $82.33 per ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.13%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.06 [2]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was $5,085.70 per ounce, a decrease of 1.28% from the previous day; the trading volume was not available; the position volume increased by 3.22% to 420,200 lots; the inventory increased by 0.18% to 1,030 tons [7]. - LBMA Gold: The closing price was $5,148.55 per ounce, an increase of 2.28% from the previous day; the closing price of the active contract was 1,152.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.09%; the trading volume decreased by 44.15% to 327,400 lots; the position volume increased by 1.52% to 290,400 lots; the inventory remained unchanged at 105.03 tons; the settled capital increased by 1.43% to 53.528 billion yuan; the closing price of the short - pays - long contract was 1,148.56 yuan, a decrease of 0.38% [7]. - SHFE Gold: The closing price of the active contract, trading volume, position volume, inventory, settled capital, and the closing price of the short - pays - long contract all had corresponding changes, with the position volume increasing by 1.52% to 290,400 lots and the inventory remaining unchanged at 105.03 tons [7]. - AuT + D: The trading volume decreased by 45.80% to 50.77 tons, and the position volume increased by 1.45% to 241.88 tons [7]. - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was $83.77 per ounce, an increase of 1.78% from the previous day; the position volume decreased by 4.59% to 125,500 lots; the inventory decreased by 0.83% to 10,955 tons [7]. - LBMA Silver: The closing price was $86.79 per ounce, an increase of 6.74% from the previous day; the closing price of the active contract was 21,639.00 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.98%; the trading volume decreased by 16.91% to 1,190,700 lots; the position volume decreased by 0.04% to 504,200 lots; the inventory decreased by 7.50% to 272.72 tons; the settled capital decreased by 1.03% to 29.457 billion yuan; the closing price of the short - pays - long contract decreased by 2.29% to 21,068.00 yuan [7]. - SHFE Silver: The closing price of the active contract, trading volume, position volume, inventory, settled capital, and the closing price of the short - pays - long contract all had corresponding changes, with the inventory decreasing by 7.50% to 272.72 tons [7]. - AgT + D: The trading volume decreased by 20.99% to 431.93 tons, and the position volume decreased by 0.38% to 2,966.324 tons [7]. 3.3 ETF Holdings - Gold ETFs: In February, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion. The total global gold asset management scale (AUM) reached a record high of $701 billion, and the global holding volume reached 4,171 tons. The holdings of various gold ETFs such as SPDR US, iShare US, GBS UK, etc. had different changes on March 5, 2026 [3][66]. - Silver ETFs: The closing price of silver ETFs was $74.27, a decrease of 1.42% from the previous day. The holdings of various silver ETFs such as SLV US, ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, etc. also had different changes on March 5, 2026 [66].