国新国证期货早报-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.66%. The trading volume of the three major markets slightly increased by 24.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Different futures varieties have different market trends. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes showed a downward trend [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 5, A - share three major indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4108.57, up 0.64%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14088.84, up 1.23%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3216.94, up 1.66%. The trading volume of the three major markets reached 2412.8 billion yuan, an increase of 24.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4647.69 on March 5, up 45.7 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 5, the coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1686.4, down 0.9; the coking coal weighted index was sorted out narrowly, closing at 1126.9 yuan, down 4.1 [2][3]. - The main reason for the weakening of coal - coke prices is that the high import volume of Mongolian coal weakens the effect of the slow resumption of domestic coal production, and downstream steel mills and coking plants are still consuming existing furnace material inventories, delaying restocking [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as rising energy prices, the upward trend of US sugar subsided on Wednesday, and it fluctuated lower. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher on Thursday due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and increased spot quotes. At night, it continued to rise under the influence of funds [4]. - As of February 28, Yunnan Province had cumulatively crushed 12.0182 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 9.41%; produced 1.4934 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 6.65%; sold 697,500 tons of new sugar, with a sales rate of 46.71%, lower than 51.60% in the same period of the previous season [4]. Rubber - Due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices caused by the US - Iran dispute and the uncertainty of the global economy, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia fluctuated lower. Affected by this, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on Thursday and slightly declined at night after a large short - term decline [4]. - After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed production, and most enterprises had returned to the normal level within the week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 5, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1166.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.45%. The Middle East conflict led to a rise in international crude oil, providing some potential support for the agricultural product market. The US soybean export sales net increase was 383,500 tons in the week ending February 26, in line with market expectations [5]. - Domestically, on March 5, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2843 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.49%. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 710,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 150,500 tons. The decrease in inventory exceeded expectations, enhancing the anti - decline ability of soybean meal prices [5]. Live Pigs - On March 5, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11140 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.09%. The supply of suitable - weight live pigs in March is in a loose trend, and the demand for fat pigs is in the off - season. The market pressure - barring risk has increased, and the breeding end's willingness to reduce production capacity has increased [5]. - The demand for pork is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, the downstream white - strip pork sales are not smooth, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is low, and the demand side has weak support for pig prices. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Palm Oil - On March 5, affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil, the palm oil futures at home and abroad showed high - volatility patterns. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 9070 yuan, an increase of 0.76% compared to the previous trading day [5]. - The spot market is still slowly shipping, and the spot quotes in various markets are the same as the previous day. The mainstream price of 24 - degree palm oil in Zhangjiagang Port is 9000 yuan per ton [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened at 101,640, reached a high of 102,290, a low of 100,330, and closed at 101,080, with a settlement price of 101,330. The trading volume was 138,700 lots, and the open interest was 201,000 lots, showing a wide - range fluctuation within the day [5]. - The core driving factors are that the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has cooled, and the strong US dollar suppresses non - ferrous metals. In February, the domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 7.96% year - on - year, and downstream enterprises resumed work slowly, were resistant to high prices, and mainly purchased on demand with weak restocking willingness [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15215 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 11 lots compared to the previous trading day. After the Spring Festival, polyester staple fiber rose sharply [6]. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 803 on Thursday, with a low of 798.5, a high of 805, and closed at 800.5, with an increase of 424 lots in positions [6]. - On March 5, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 790 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Iron Ore - On March 5, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.27% and a closing price of 759 yuan. The iron ore shipment continued to rise this period, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory was at a historical high, and the molten iron production maintained an increasing trend. However, some steel mills were restricted during the Two Sessions, and the short - term iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend [6]. Asphalt - On March 5, the asphalt 2604 main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.11% and a closing price of 3659 yuan. As refineries gradually resume production, the asphalt capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, and the refinery shipment volume has also increased month - on - month. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. Steel - On March 5, rb2605 closed at 3075 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3209 yuan per ton. The government work report proposed a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the general public budget expenditure increased by about 1.27 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - The steel industry is still in the stage of resuming work and production, the market demand has not recovered, and the steel price may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. Alumina - On March 5, ao2605 closed at 2800 yuan per ton. The new production capacity in Guangxi was put into production less than expected, resulting in a tight supply in the southwest region. After the Spring Festival, the spot circulation in the north tightened, which supported the price to a certain extent. However, the overall supply - surplus pattern of alumina has not changed, and the upward pressure is still significant [6]. - The domestic alumina production started stably this week. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream resumption rate increased, and the spot price stabilized and rebounded slightly, providing marginal benefits [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 5, al2604 closed at 24815 yuan per ton. Domestically, the market is concerned about the guidance of important meetings. The supply side operates stably, the aluminum - water ratio remains at a low level within the year, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory pressure continues to rise [6]. - The demand side is under increasing pressure, the major downstream consumption areas are cautious in receiving goods, and the high aluminum price suppresses the demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious [6].