LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强：丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，基本面维持偏紧

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has strong short - term geopolitical disturbances, and propylene has geopolitical disturbances at the cost end with a tight fundamental situation [1]. - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1, indicating a neutral view on LPG and a slightly bullish view on propylene [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market - For LPG futures (PG), on March 5, 2026, the closing prices of PG 2604, 2605, and 2606 were 5,127, 5,022, and 4,902 respectively, with daily declines of 3.34%, 3.27%, and 3.43%. The night - closing prices were 5,150, 5,035, and 4,919 respectively, with night - time increases of 0.45%, 0.26%, and 0.35%. Trading volumes and positions also had corresponding changes [1]. - For propylene futures (PL), on March 5, 2026, the closing prices of PL 2604, 2605, and 2606 were 7,136, 7,085, and 6,896 respectively, with daily changes of 0.98%, - 0.04%, and - 0.40%. The night - closing prices were 7,135, 7,119, and 6,916 respectively, with night - time changes of - 0.01%, 0.48%, and 0.29%. Trading volumes and positions also had corresponding changes [1]. - Spot Market - For LPG, prices in different regions such as Shandong civilian, East China civilian, South China civilian, etc. had different changes compared to the previous day. For example, Shandong civilian LPG price increased by 10 to 4,850, and the主力基差 increased by 187 to - 277 [1]. - For propylene, prices in Shandong, East China, and South China also had changes. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased by 355 to 7,370, and the主力基差 increased by 358 to 285 [1]. - Industrial Chain开工 - As of March 6, 2026, the PDH开工 rate was 64.93%, an increase of 1.7 compared to last week; the alkylation开工 rate was 38.37%, unchanged from last week; the MTBE开工 rate was 67.72%, an increase of 0.5 compared to last week [1]. - LPG Shipment Volume - From the United States, the global shipment volume on March 5, 2026, was 9.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day; the Asian shipment volume was 4.6 tons, an increase of 4.6 compared to the previous day. - From the Middle East, the global shipment volume on March 5, 2026, was 0.0 tons, a decrease of 8.8 compared to the previous day; the Asian shipment volume was 0.0 tons, a decrease of 4.6 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Market Information - On March 5, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 591 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the price of butane was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The May CP paper - cargo price of propane was 566 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start times and most of the end times undetermined [7]. - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, including those of Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shangneng Petrochemical, Dongchen Petrochemical, etc., with different start and end times and corresponding loss volumes [7].