棉花：等待新的驱动20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The trend strength of cotton is rated as 1, indicating a neutral position [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2605 closed at 15,250 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30%, and its night - session price was 15,215 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%. CY2605 closed at 21,055 yuan/ton with no daily change, and its night - session price was 21,045 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%. ICE US cotton 5 closed at 64.06 cents/pound with a decline of 0.17% [1]. - CF2605 had a trading volume of 731,712 lots, an increase of 217,072 lots from the previous day, and a position of 1,169,583 lots, an increase of 10,196 lots. CY2605 had a trading volume of 16,686 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and a position of 14,331 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 11,390, an increase of 11 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,253, an increase of 121. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 363, a decrease of 285 [1]. - Spot Data: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,444 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,377 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,608 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 16,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 74.50 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.45 cents or 0.60% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,826 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: - The CF5 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The spot trading of cotton was sluggish, with relatively good procurement by some local traders. The basis of cotton spot remained stable. In 2025/26, the price of machine - picked 3129/29B cotton in Kashgar, Nanjiang with impurity within 3.5 was mostly quoted at CF05 + 1100 or above, and a small amount of cotton with impurity around 3.5 had a lower quote within 1100, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The quotation of pure cotton yarn was basically stable. Recently, the orders for combed high - count yarn were relatively good. Some inland spinning enterprises had a production schedule of about one month, and some spinning enterprises in Xinjiang could extend their orders until the end of April. The orders for semi - combed varieties in Henan, Shandong and other places were also smooth, and the market demand was gradually released [2]. - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures fell slightly yesterday. Affected by the poor weekly export sales data of US cotton, ICE cotton once fell to 63.62 cents/pound. At the end of the session, affected by the rise of crude oil and other agricultural products, ICE cotton rose back above 64 cents/pound. According to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, as of February 26, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 150,400 bales, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the four - week average [2].