20260306申万期货品种策略日报：双焦（J&JM）-20260306

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke showing a weak trend, with the total holding of coking coal increasing month - on - month. This week, the output of the five major steel products remained basically flat month - on - month, with an increase in rebar and a decrease in hot - rolled coils. The overall inventory continued to increase month - on - month, mainly due to rebar. The overall apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. This week, both the molten iron output and the profitability rate of steel mills decreased month - on - month, mainly because multiple production areas were affected by environmental protection maintenance, leading to a decline in the rigid demand for coking coal and coke. However, the current geopolitical situation can also push up the valuation of energy - related commodities through the expectation of supply tightening. In the future, focus should be on the trend of molten iron output, mine operation, the policy orientation of the Two Sessions, and the geopolitical situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Price and Trading Volume - Price and Change: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months of coking coal and coke were 1676.5, 1401.0, 1105.5, 1745.0, 1200.0, 1840.0 respectively, with price changes of 8.5, 3.0, - 1.0, 1.5, 4.5, - 3.0 and price change rates of 0.27%, - 0.07%, 0.77%, 0.13%, 0.16%, - 0.17% compared to the day before. [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes were 3594, 967615, 82388, 127, 16636, 1095 respectively, and the open interests were 1230, 36823, 14347, 2932, 488493, 105596 respectively. The changes in open interests were 223, - 4342, 21, - 268, 107, - 16540 respectively. [2] - Price Spread: The current values of price spreads such as 1 - 5 months, 9 - 1 months, 5 - 9 months were - 79.5, - 77.5, 240, - 160.5, 160.5, - 83 respectively, with changes of 2.5, 429.5, 2, 306, - 308.5, - 431.5 respectively. [2] Spot Price - The current spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, such as Taiyuan rail - side price, port self - pick - up price, ex - factory price, etc., were 1373, 1175, 1480, 1855, 1330, 1470 respectively, with changes of - 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively. [2] Macroeconomic Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held on the morning of the 5th. The government work report stated that the main expected target for development in 2026 is an economic growth of 4.5% - 5%. The deficit ratio in 2026 is planned to be around 4%, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan are planned to be issued. A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. [2]