20260306中万期货品种策略日报：软商品-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose slightly driven by positive sentiment in the bulk commodity market. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and sugar mills may adjust the sugar - making ratio, with a possible decline in the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 crushing season. In the short term, raw sugar will maintain a volatile trend. In the medium term, the expected reduction in Brazil's production may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to rise due to the boost from the external market, but with high domestic inventories and ample supply, the upside space is limited and it will mainly move in a volatile range [4]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed signs of recovery, rising overnight and then falling back. The escalation of the Middle - East situation has brought adjustment and risk - aversion pressure to the market after digesting previous positive factors, but the回调 amplitude is expected to be relatively limited. In the long - term, with the expectation of tight supply and demand, cotton prices may still have room to rise. In the domestic market, with increased consumption and low carry - over inventory from last year, the supply this year is expected to be tight. Policy - regulated planting area may support cotton prices in the long - term. It is advisable to consider buying on dips recently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Sugar Futures: For domestic sugar futures on March 6, 2026, compared with the previous two days, the prices of contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2603 all increased, with increases of 25, 22, and 40 respectively, and corresponding increases of 0.47%, 0.41%, and 0.76%. The prices of 11 - number sugar contracts 2610, 2607, and 2605 also rose, with increases of 0.04, 0.02, and 0.04 respectively, and increases of 0.28%, 0.15%, and 0.28%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2]. - Cotton Futures: Only the trend description of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures is provided in the report, with overnight rise and subsequent fall - back, and analysis of future trends [4]. Spot Market - Sugar Spot: The spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming were 5390 and 5225 respectively on March 6, 2026. The basis of Liuzhou and Kunming against SR2509 was 75 and - 90 respectively. The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar under quota and out - of - quota also changed compared with the previous day [2]. Inventory and Position - Sugar Inventory and Position: As of March 6, 2026, the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 14,585, the effective forecast was 2,585, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,170. For ICE 11 - number sugar, non - commercial long positions were 183,446, non - commercial short positions were 429,569, and the long - to - short ratio was 0.43 [2]. Industry Information - India Sugar Industry: In the 2025/26 crushing season as of March 3, 2026, 113 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had stopped crushing, with 97 remaining in operation, 102 fewer than the same period last year. The cumulative crushed cane was 100.51 million tons, an increase of 18.179 million tons over the same period last year; sugar production was 9.5031 million tons, an increase of about 1.7805 million tons; the average sugar - production rate was 9.45%, an increase of 0.07% over the same period last year. India may face a tight sugar supply situation later this year due to lower - than - expected production and tight inventory. However, reduced exports to the Gulf market may provide some buffer for domestic supply [3]. - Guangxi Sugar Industry: As of March 3, 2026, 3 sugar mills in Guangxi had stopped crushing in the 25/26 crushing season, 44 fewer than the same period last year, with a crushing capacity of 14,000 tons per day, a decrease of 390,500 tons per day. It is expected that more than 3 sugar mills will stop crushing this week [3].