国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian nickel ore end is catching up, and be vigilant about its speculative nature in March [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The contradictions at the ore end are increasing marginally, and the center of cost support is moving up [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Short - term market sentiment is the main factor causing disturbances [2][13]. - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upside space [2][17]. - Polysilicon: Demand is falling [2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,270, down 1,140 from T - 1; the trading volume was 464,447, down 55,631 from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,105, down 115 from T - 1; the trading volume was 202,165, down 34,167 from T - 1 [5]. Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and start taxing cobalt as an independent product [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [6]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons [8]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is cut by 70% compared to 2025 [10]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 155,860, up 2,800 from T - 1; the trading volume was 300,505, up 3,366 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2607 contract was 155,700, up 2,800 from T - 1; the trading volume was 41,592, down 5,017 from T - 1 [14]. Macro and Industry News - Fujian Province plans to develop the electric ship industry, aiming for an annual manufacturing capacity of 50 electric ships and a total industrial chain scale of 5 billion yuan by 2028 [15]. - A patent related to solid - state electrolytes and all - solid - state batteries was applied for in 2025 [16]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,565 yuan/ton, up 50 from T - 1; the trading volume was 274,255 hands, down 127,936 from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 42,280 yuan/ton, up 80 from T - 1; the trading volume was 9,962 hands, down 2,474 from T - 1 [18]. Macro and Industry News - Distributed photovoltaics aggregating into the market in the form of virtual power plants is an inevitable trend, and relevant improvement suggestions are put forward [19]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 0 [20].