国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2]. - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2]. - Copper: The narrowing of the spot discount limits the price decline [2]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2]. - Lead: The reduction of overseas inventories limits the price decline [2]. - Tin: Undergoing a volatile adjustment [2]. - Aluminum: A slight correction [2]. - Alumina: Trading sideways [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Continuing to be weak [2]. - Palladium: With low - frequency data and trading at a low level [2]. - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian mining end is catching up, and beware of speculative attributes in March [2]. - Stainless steel: The marginal contradiction at the mining end increases, and the cost - support center moves up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06 with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1144.20 with a decline of 0.22%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21854 with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21546.00 with an increase of 1.53% [4]. - Inventory and ETF: The inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 27 kilograms, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 18. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 12661 kilograms, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 34 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Concerns about the protracted Iran war pushed crude oil futures to a 20 - month high. Li Qiang's government work report set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5% and the deficit rate at about 4%. The US plans to expand AI chip export controls globally [4][6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,080 with a daily decline of 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 100980 with a decline of 0.10%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,859 with a decline of 1.29% [7]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 1,157 tons, and the London Copper inventory increased by 20,675 tons. The spot discount narrowed, with the spot - to - near - month futures spread increasing by 40 [7]. - Macro and Industry News: Geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, triggering inflation concerns. Japan's January copper and copper alloy imports increased by 13.51% year - on - year, while Chile's January copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24520 with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3319 with an increase of 1.42% [10]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 1144 tons, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 250 tons. The Shanghai 0 zinc premium decreased by 10 [10]. - News: Iran refuted the claim of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Oil price surges impacted the interest - rate cut expectation, and the expectation of the Fed not cutting interest rates this year increased [11][12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16775 with a daily decline of 0.39%, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1962 with an increase of 1.32% [13]. - Inventory and Spread: The London Lead inventory decreased by 200 tons. The Shanghai 1 lead premium remained unchanged [13]. - News: Geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, triggering inflation concerns. The market was waiting for non - farm payroll data [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 391,810 with a daily decline of 0.90%, and the night - session closing price was 394,100 with a decline of 1.59%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 49,405 with a decline of 3.51% [17]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 289 tons, and the London Tin inventory decreased by 5 tons. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 1,650 [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Before the non - farm payroll data, the soaring oil price triggered inflation concerns. The US plans to expand AI chip export controls globally [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24815, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2800. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23420 [20]. - Inventory and Spread: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 127.00 million tons, an increase of 2.40 million tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 45.91 million tons, a decrease of 0.20 million tons [20]. - Comprehensive News: The 2026 economic growth target was set at 4.5% - 5%, and the Japanese central bank might keep the March interest rate unchanged [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 563.95 with an increase of 0.08%, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 428.00 with a decline of 1.34% [23]. - Inventory and Spread: The platinum ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 15,768 ounces, and the palladium ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3 ounces [23]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Department of Defense solicited opinions on potential reserves of five key minerals. The US plans to expand AI chip export controls globally [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 136,270, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,105 [28]. - Industry News: Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and some nickel mines in Guatemala and Indonesia have production - related news, including production quota adjustments and accidents [28][29][31].