格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The market has short - term uncertainties, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract dropped 1.35% to 1135.48 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract declined 1.63% to 21305 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 5.144 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1075.894 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 12.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 30.7% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 was 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, falling short of the market expectation of 215,000 [1] - CME announced that it will lower the initial margin of its COMEX 100 gold futures from 9% to 7% and the initial margin of COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective after the close on March 6, 2026 [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion in February, achieving nine consecutive months of capital inflows and the strongest annual start ever [1] - In the Middle - East conflict, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanchi said that Iran has not selected a new supreme leader and is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US offers a satisfactory alternative. The US military is reported to be preparing for a 100 - day operation against Iran until September [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, the US dollar index regained its upward momentum, closing up 0.24% at 99.04. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise, closing at 4.14%, with a cumulative increase of about 19 basis points in the past four trading days. The stronger US dollar and rising US bond yields suppressed precious metals. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continued, and the blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil prices, leading to an increase in the global inflation expectation and a further decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The US stock market fell on Thursday, and COMEX gold and silver had a slight correction [1][2] Trading Strategy - Due to the high short - term uncertainty in the market, investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]