原木：库存偏低，价格震荡抬升

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of logs is low, and the price is rising in a fluctuating manner [1] - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is more realistic, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [3] - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, which came into effect on February 26, 2026 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Contracts: - For the 2605 contract, the closing price on March 5, 2026, was 800.5, with a daily decline of 0.2% and a weekly increase of 0.3%. The trading volume was 3912, with a daily increase of 53.9% and a weekly increase of 24%. The open interest was 9171, with a daily increase of 4.8% and a weekly increase of 21% [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price on March 5, 2026, was 801.5, with a daily decline of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0%. The trading volume was 260, with a daily increase of 157.4% and a weekly increase of 94%. The open interest was 1362, with a daily increase of 10.4% and a weekly increase of 18% [1] - For the 2609 contract, the closing price on March 5, 2026, was 811, with a daily decline of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0%. The trading volume was 230, with a daily increase of 44.7% and a weekly increase of 111%. The open interest was 1106, with a daily increase of 5.4% and a weekly increase of 21% [1] - Spreads: - The spread between the 2605 and 2607 contracts on March 5, 2026, was - 1, with a weekly decline of 50% - The spread between the 2605 and 2609 contracts on March 5, 2026, was - 10.5, with a daily increase of 5.0% and a weekly increase of 0% - The spread between the 2607 and 2609 contracts on March 5, 2026, was - 9.5, with a daily decline of 5.0% and a weekly increase of 12% [1] - Spot Market: - For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market, the price on March 5, 2026, was 770, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 2.7% - For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market, the price on March 5, 2026, was 790, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 1.3% - Similar data are provided for various types of logs and wood squares in different markets [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report adjusts the GDP growth target from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%" and increases the scale of policy - based financial instruments [3] - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, which took effect on February 26, 2026 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of logs is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]