格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is oscillating bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is necessary to focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the progress of agricultural demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 13 yuan to 1814 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1850 yuan/ton. The long - position increased by 3820 lots to 272,000 lots, and the short - position decreased by 1948 lots to 311,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 218,000 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 21,500 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate yesterday was 92.57%, 5.22% higher than 87.35% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons or 6.62% from the previous period. The sample inventory at urea ports is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%, and the operating rate of melamine is 55.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2% [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipping date is March 31st. A total of 20 suppliers participated, with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%, and the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil prices: Due to concerns about supply constraints from the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the unresolved geopolitical risks, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 6.35 dollars/barrel to 81.01 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 8.51%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.01 dollars/barrel to 85.41 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 41.7 to 665.7 yuan/barrel and rose 8.3 to 674 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Over the weekend, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated severely, and domestic crude oil continued to soar. The RCF price of India's urea import tender was announced, and overseas urea prices continued to rise. Middle and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously [1]