能源化?策略?报：炼检修增多，亚洲航空煤化工裂解价差?幅攀升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the main factor driving the strength of crude oil prices. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries, and the chemical industry as a whole is expected to continue the strong and volatile pattern, led by crude oil [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East continue. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz strengthens the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries. The Brent spread continues to strengthen, and the domestic spread shows high - level fluctuations. The price is expected to fluctuate. The influencing factors include the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production policy changes, and Sino - US tariff policy adjustments [7]. - Asphalt: The geopolitical premium is released, but the profit is significantly compressed. The absolute price is overvalued, and the medium - and long - term valuation is expected to decline. The influencing factors are the sharp rise or fall of crude oil prices [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Driven by geopolitics, the futures price continues to rise sharply. In the medium and long term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced, which is a long - term negative factor. The short - term outlook is to pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the sharp rise of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate following crude oil [10]. - PX: The expectation of raw material supply interruption strengthens, and the short - term is expected to be strong. The medium - term logic of buying on dips remains, and the PXN is expected to be sorted out in the range of [220, 280] US dollars/ton [12]. - PTA: The market is worried that raw material risks will force PTA plants to reduce or stop production, and the basis strengthens significantly. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13]. - Pure Benzene: Driven by the rise of crude oil prices, although the inventory pressure is still large, the fundamentals in Q1 are improved compared with Q4. It is expected to be strong and volatile [17]. - Styrene: Affected by the rise of crude oil and the reduction of supply due to device maintenance, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to be strong and volatile in March [19]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the import volume in April is expected to decrease significantly. The short - term is expected to be strong, and the medium - term is to buy on dips [21]. - Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber: Driven by the cost, it is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, and the processing fee has certain support below [23]. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Driven by the rise of raw materials, the market trading atmosphere recovers, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. The support for the processing fee below is enhanced [25]. - Methanol: The demand is weak, which drags down the geopolitical drive. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The influencing factors include the sharp rise of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, supply - side disturbances, and downstream negative feedback [27]. - Urea: There is a coexistence of demand support and policy guidance. It is expected to fluctuate and sort out. The influencing factors include the sharp rise or fall of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, demand exceeding expectations, and policy control risks [29]. - Plastic (LLDPE): Affected by the geopolitical situation and the possible reduction of PE imports, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [32]. - PP: Affected by the rise of oil prices, the indirect boost of methanol and propane, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [33]. - PL: Boosted by raw materials, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - PVC: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the supply reduction expectation of ethylene - based PVC increases. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but it should be vigilant against the weakening of the geopolitical conflict [35]. - Caustic Soda: Overseas production cuts boost domestic exports. It is expected to be strong and volatile. The influencing factors include poor demand, sharp decline in spot prices, macro - disturbances, and excessive replenishment in the middle and lower reaches [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 3.8 with a change of 0.41 US dollars/barrel [38]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 109 yuan/ton with a change of 21 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [39]. - Inter - variety Spread: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 188 yuan/ton with a change of - 20 yuan/ton [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index is 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index is 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial product index is 2430.86, up 1.36% [280]. - Energy Index: On March 5, 2026, the energy index is 1558.52, with a daily increase of 4.14%, a 5 - day increase of 31.66%, a 1 - month increase of 33.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 43.43% [282].