地缘冲突升级，避险需求持续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying. Geopolitical risks have significantly increased, and safe-haven funds are continuously flowing into the precious metals market. Gold prices are approaching $5,200 per ounce. Energy prices are rising, pushing up global inflation expectations, and the market is re - evaluating the monetary policy path. The US dollar has rebounded, and precious metals are maintaining a high - level oscillation pattern between safe - haven demand and interest rate expectations [1]. - If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. - Silver is a high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals. Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals. Silver has received support from capital allocation. After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold. The industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand. If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Viewpoint: Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying [1]. - Logic: - The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, and the uncertainty of global energy supply has significantly increased, and safe - haven demand continuously supports the gold price [1]. - Rising oil prices drive up inflation expectations, and the market re - evaluates the monetary policy path of major economies. The possibility of maintaining high interest rates exerts a phased suppression on gold [1]. - The US dollar rebounds after a previous decline. Exchange rate and interest rate factors cause gold to show an oscillation pattern at a high level [1]. - Outlook: If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. Silver - Viewpoint: A high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals [3]. - Logic: - Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals, and silver receives support from capital allocation in the context of the strengthening of gold [3]. - After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold [3]. - In the context of certain resilience in the global economy, the industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand [3]. - Outlook: If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Commodity Index - Composite Index: Not provided with specific data - Special Index: - Commodity Index: 2510.23, +1.04% [44] - Commodity 20 Index: 2869.81, +1.11% [44] - Industrial Products Index: 2430.86, +1.36% [44] - Sector Index (Precious Metals Index): - On March 5, 2026, the index was 4413.43, with a daily increase of +0.91% [46] - The increase in the past 5 days was - 1.33% [46] - The increase in the past 1 month was - 14.40% [46] - The increase from the beginning of the year to the present was +15.41% [46]