中国期货每日简报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, equity index futures rose, and most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. Geopolitical tensions have a significant impact on the prices of crude oil and related chemical products, and the future price trends of these products are expected to be volatile due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation [11][13]. - The Chinese government has set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, and plans to issue RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with a deficit ratio of around 4%. These policies are expected to have an impact on the macro - economic and financial markets [39][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 5, equity index futures rose (IF rose 0.9% and IM rose 0.8%), and most commodities performed well, with energy & chemicals leading the increase. In CGB futures, TL dropped 0.05% and TF dropped 0.03%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Sodium Hydroxide (up 7.0% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Crude Oil (up 6.4% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), and Benzene (up 6.2% with open interest increasing 8.8% month - on - month). The top three decliners were LPG (down 3.6% with open interest decreasing 3.8% month - on - month), Methanol (down 3.5% with open interest decreasing 12.5% month - on - month), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.4% with open interest decreasing 5.0% month - on - month) [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Crude Oil: On March 5, the crude oil main contract hit the upward limit at one point but pulled back in the late trading session, closing up 6.4% at 664.1 yuan/barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories continued seasonal build - up at a slower pace. Geopolitical tensions led to reduced supply, and the future price is expected to fluctuate [17][18][20]. - Benzene: On March 5, the main contract of Benzene rose 6.2% to 7251 yuan/ton. Crude oil price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions are the key driver of benzene prices. Supply is affected by crude oil swings, and refineries may cut operating rates. Demand is affected by styrene maintenance and restart news. Although inventory pressure remains, Q1 fundamentals have improved month - on - month from Q4 [24][25][27]. - Ethenylbenzene: On March 5, the main contract of Ethenylbenzene rose 6.0% to 8656 yuan/ton. Geopolitical tensions boosted crude oil, which in turn lifted ethenylbenzene prices. Supply is expected to drop due to plant maintenance, and demand is recovering after the Spring Festival. It is expected to destock in March [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro - The Government Work Report stated that the main expected development goals for 2026 are economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate kept at around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs created, the consumer price index rising by about 2%, a basic balance of international payments, grain output reaching approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and a reduction of around 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. The deficit ratio is projected at around 4% for the year, with a deficit scale of RMB 5.89 trillion, an increase of RMB 230 billion over the previous year. RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [39][40]. 3.2.2 Trading - On March 5, 2026, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) adjusted the price limits and trading margin ratios for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil futures contracts [40][44][45].