2026年经济?作定调提质增效，?险资产?部反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 economic work is focused on improving quality and efficiency, with most risk assets rebounding. Overseas, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, while domestically, focus on the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1]. - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are showing a mixed trend, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. In the US, consumer confidence is rebounding, and core capital expenditure remains resilient, supporting industrial metals. However, policy discussions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing risk premiums [1]. - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target, stable fiscal and monetary policies, expanding domestic demand as a key task, highlighting the "dual - carbon" goal, and continuing the "anti - involution" work. Relevant equity and commodity assets in new and old infrastructure, consumption, and green transformation are worth noting [1]. - In terms of asset allocation, the focus is on structure, and it is necessary to distinguish whether conflicts spill over. If the war does not expand, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages; if the conflict expands, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are overweight, bonds are neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore is underweight in the black sector, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomy - In February, US consumer confidence rebounded, indicating consumption resilience and limiting the space for "recession trading." In December, the total factory orders declined, but excluding transportation, they increased. Non - defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) continued to expand, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, which supported industrial metals [1]. - Policy discussions around the Wash nominee are intensifying, and the risk premium is affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with the intensification of the US - Iran situation and Israeli air strikes on Iran, the Middle East situation is heating up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums [1]. Domestic Macroeconomy - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target is in line with the requirement of improving economic quality and efficiency; fiscal and monetary policies are generally stable; expanding domestic demand may be the key task this year, with new and old infrastructure and consumption upgrading as the main focuses; the "dual - carbon" goal remains prominent, and the demand for green transformation - related commodities is broad; the "anti - involution" work will continue, aiming to ensure economic quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1]. Asset Views - If the war does not expand further and energy production, transportation, and the passage of the strait are not substantially affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles still have relative advantages. If the conflict expands and affects global risk appetite, risk assets will be under pressure in the short term, equities and industrial metals will face pressure, and the safe - haven premiums of precious metals and energy will further increase [1]. - Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, bonds are generally neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black sector is under - allocated, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Market Conditions of Various Varieties - Financial Sector: Stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors [1][4]. - Shipping Sector: Container shipping on the European route is expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - Black Building Materials Sector: Steel, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as cost, production, and policy affecting the market [4]. - Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as supply concerns, the US dollar index, and geopolitical conflicts influencing the prices [4]. - Energy and Chemical Sector: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical situations and supply - demand relationships being the main influencing factors [4][5]. - Agricultural Sector: Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as trade, weather, and policies affecting the market [5]. Market Fluctuations - Financial Market: On March 5, 2026, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.7%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures rose 0.33%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02%. The US dollar index fell 0.27% [7]. - Industry Index: On March 5, 2026, the machinery industry index rose 1.46%, the electronic industry index rose 2.01%, and the national defense and military industry index rose 0.51% [8][9]. - Overseas Commodities: On March 4, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 1.45%, and COMEX gold rose 0.54% [10][11]. - Domestic Commodities: On March 5, 2026, the container shipping on the European route fell 9.78%, domestic gold fell 0.08%, and domestic crude oil rose 0.51% [12][13].