渤海证券研究所晨会纪要-20260306

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, reflecting a pragmatic adjustment in response to market expectations, with nearly 60% of provinces lowering their GDP growth targets [2] - Fiscal policy maintains a deficit rate target of around 4%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a commitment to sustaining expenditure levels while optimizing the use of fiscal funds [3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on the reasonable recovery of prices, aiming for a CPI increase of 2% [4] - Expanding domestic demand remains a top priority, with policy adjustments focusing on sustainable growth and high-quality development, including a slight increase in central budget investment to 755 billion [5] - The emphasis on cultivating new driving forces in various fields highlights the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, with significant support for key core technology enterprises [6][7] - The report indicates a deepening of "anti-involution" governance, with a focus on antitrust and fair competition, alongside reforms in the capital market to enhance the investment and financing ecosystem [8] Industry Research - The Tianjin biopharmaceutical industry is positioned as a key part of the "1+3+4" modern industrial system, with a reported output value exceeding 90 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [13] - The industry benefits from strong policy support and a rich innovation resource base, including multiple laboratories and specialized universities, fostering advancements in synthetic biology and gene therapy [14] - Traditional sectors like chemical drugs and modern Chinese medicine are consolidating their advantages, while emerging sectors such as biomanufacturing and nucleic acid drugs are rapidly developing [15] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to reach a production value of over 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth in medical device production [16] Computer Industry Research - The report highlights that China's AI models surpassed those of the US in global usage in February 2026, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI sector [17] - The software industry in China reported a business revenue of 15.48 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, showcasing robust industry performance [18] - The investment strategy emphasizes the sustained high demand for AI computing power, with major cloud computing firms expected to maintain rapid capital expenditure growth [19]