金信期货日刊-20260306

Report Information - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily Newsletter - Date: March 6, 2026 [1] - Investment Advisory Team Members: Yao Xinghang, Zhou Zhutao, Wang Jingzheng, Zhang Zhaoju, Zhong Zhumin, Lin Jingwei, Diao Zhiguo, Yang Yanlong, Cheng Wei [26] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The current core drivers of the crude oil price increase are the Middle East conflict and the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium term, the price will depend on the supply-demand situation and the pace of geopolitical easing [2]. - A-share market opened higher in the morning,冲高 in the morning and fell back in the afternoon, showing a rebound trend. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow [5]. - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12]. - For glass, it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market. The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear [14][15]. - For methanol, about 60% of China's 14 million tons of imported methanol comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17]. - For pulp, the trading sentiment in the spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Short-term (1 month): Geopolitical premium dominates, with WTI ranging from $72 to $78 and Brent from $78 to $85. The key variables are the navigation of the strait and the escalation of the conflict. If the situation eases, the premium will quickly decline; if the blockade intensifies, Brent may reach $90. OPEC+ will maintain production cuts in March and slightly increase production in April, with short-term supply being tight and low inventory providing support [2]. - Medium-term (2 - 3 months): The supply-demand fundamentals will return to the dominant position. In Q1 2026, the global supply surplus reached its peak, with a daily surplus of about 2.9 million barrels and an annual surplus of 2.3 - 3.7 million barrels. Only China and India have moderate growth in demand, while Europe and the United States are stagnant, and the weak manufacturing restricts the upward movement. If the geopolitical situation eases, the oil price center will move down to $65 - $75; if the conflict continues, the high-level fluctuations will intensify [2]. - Trading strategy: Strictly control stop-loss in the short term and buy on dips [3] A-share Market - The A-share market showed a rebound trend today. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow. The morning rally tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [5] Gold - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9] Iron Ore - The supply from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm, and the mine production capacity is in the release cycle in the medium and long term, so the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills resume production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12] Glass - The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market [14][15] Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for slightly more than 10% of the total consumption (domestic production is about 92 million tons). About 60% of this 14 million tons of imports comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17] Pulp - The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]