两会后债市怎么看

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth target and fiscal support in the government work report are in line with market expectations, with limited upward pressure on interest rates from the actual growth rate [5][23]. - The inflation target is set at around 2%, and although the recent Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased inflation expectations, its impact on interest rates needs further observation and is not a major short - term concern [5][23]. - In the short term, the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut is higher than an interest rate cut. The central bank has been injecting long - term liquidity, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can maintain liquidity [5][23]. - In the short term, the bond market is expected to be range - bound and relatively strong. Credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit that have declined significantly are likely to remain range - bound at low levels, while 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds may have phased allocation opportunities [5][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth Target - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, aiming to balance stable growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention, and leaving room for reform and high - quality development [7]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - The deficit rate is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from 2025, and the deficit increment is borne by the central government [5][8][9]. - The ultra - long - term special treasury bond is set at 1.3 trillion yuan, with the scale for supporting consumer goods trade - in decreasing from 30 billion yuan to 25 billion yuan [5][9]. - 30 billion yuan of special treasury bonds are to be issued to support the capital replenishment of state - owned large - scale commercial banks, with a focus on ICBC and ABC that did not receive capital injection in 2025 [5][9]. - Local government special bonds remain at 4.4 trillion yuan, mainly supporting major project construction, implicit debt replacement, and settlement of government arrears [5][9]. - Other fiscal and quasi - fiscal funds have expanded significantly, including a 20 - billion - yuan increase in central budgetary investment to 755 billion yuan, a 30 - billion - yuan increase in new policy - based financial instruments to 800 billion yuan, and the establishment of a 10 - billion - yuan special fund for fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand [5][9]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with an emphasis on optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools, increasing their scale, and improving implementation methods [5][11]. - In January 2026, the central bank announced a series of initial monetary and financial policies, increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan and the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan [11]. 3.4 Promoting Consumption - A 10 - billion - yuan special fund for fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand is established, using loan interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and risk compensation to support domestic demand expansion [12][14]. - The scope of loan interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service - industry business entities is expanded, with an increase in the subsidy ceiling and an extension of the implementation period. A one - time credit repair policy is implemented [14]. 3.5 Expanding Investment - 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds are allocated for "two major" construction, with the pre - allocated scale increasing from 100 billion yuan in 2025 to 220 billion yuan in 2026, highlighting the policy orientation of early action and priority for physical work volume [14][15]. - The government work report emphasizes increasing the quota of local government special bonds for project construction and tilting towards areas with well - prepared investment projects and efficient use of funds [15].