集运指数（欧线）：关注地缘情绪扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market of the container shipping index (European Line) is greatly disturbed by geopolitical sentiment. After the sharp decline, the geopolitical premium is partially reversed, but all contracts are still at par or at a premium compared to the same period in 2025. The probability of resuming navigation before July has significantly decreased. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For EC2604, the closing price was 1,768.0, with a daily decline of 3.42%, trading volume of 153,840, and an open interest of 36,679 with a decrease of 1,939. For EC2606, the closing price was 1,950.1, a daily decline of 15.57%, trading volume of 30,528, and an open interest of 20,170 with a decrease of 1,467. Similar data is provided for EC2608 and EC2610 [1] - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,463.40, with a weekly decline of 7.0%, and for the US - West route was 1,045.08, with a weekly decline of 6.0%. The SCFI for the European route was 1,420 ($/TEU), with a bi - weekly increase of 4.3%, and for the US - West route was 1,857 ($/FEU), with a bi - weekly increase of 3.9% [1] - Carrier Freight: Different carriers such as Maersk, MSC, etc. have different freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, with different voyage days and prices for 40'GP and 20'GP containers [1] - Exchange Rate: The US dollar index was 98.80, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.92 [1] 3.2 Ship Schedule and Capacity - China - Europe Base Ship Schedule: From February to April 2026, there were 11 blank sailings in February, 11 blank sailings and 1 additional sailing in March, and 1 blank sailing and 3 undetermined sailings in April. CMA added a new OCR route. The weekly capacity from February to April showed fluctuations, with the weekly average capacity in April being 32.6 million TEU/week, a monthly year - on - year growth rate of 4.1% [4] 3.3 Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical Events: There are a series of geopolitical events in the Middle East, including statements from Iran's military and political figures, actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and responses from the US, Israel, and NATO [7][10] - Impact on the Container Shipping Market: The passage through the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and major container shipping liner companies have not resumed new bookings for Middle - East routes. Geopolitical events affect the container shipping European Line market through sentiment and supply - demand aspects. If the conflict cools down within 1 - 2 weeks, the global container shipping geopolitical premium is expected to decline from its high level; if it lasts for weeks to months, it will affect the global capacity tightness [8][9] 3.4 Supply - Demand and Freight Analysis - Demand: March - April is the regular off - season for demand after the Spring Festival. There was no large - scale missed loading in the second week of March, and the loading situation in the third week will be clearer next week [9] - Supply: COSCO and its subsidiary OOCL transferred the Middle - East MEX route to the Northwest Europe AEU3/LL2 route, and the AEU7 route cancelled calling at Shanghai Port in the 13th week. The overall market capacity increased significantly in the second half of March, and the PA alliance faced relatively high capacity pressure in the third week [10][11] - Freight: In the second week of March, the freight rates of major shipping companies on the European Line showed mixed trends. In the third week, Maersk increased the freight rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam. If other shipping companies do not take counter - actions, the market freight rate center may be around $2,500/FEU, equivalent to about 1,800 points on the SCFIS index [11]