上海→欧洲集运期货日报策略报告-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the market first rose and then fell, with a significant overall decline. The main contract EC2604 closed at 1768 points, down 7.41% day - on - day; the second - main contract EC2606 closed at 1950.1 points, down 12.51% day - on - day; the farthest - month contract EC2612 closed at 1677.3 points, down 9.96% day - on - day. The total trading volume of the eight major contracts was 209,500 lots, and the total trading value was 20.676 billion yuan [3]. - The market believes that the Iran war situation is only a temporary event, mainly impacting the near - term market and shipping schedules. Once the Iran situation cools down or ends, the future market will return to normal. The statement from the deputy commander of the Iranian Central Command that the Strait of Hormuz was not blocked led to a sharp decline in the futures market [4]. - Although many liner companies have announced ultra - high prices above $4000/FEU for the second half of March, Maersk's Week 12 opening price of $2200/FEU is relatively more rational and achievable, basically reflecting the lowest price in the spot market. The actual implementation of price increases by other shipowners remains to be observed. The current Iran situation is complex and changeable, and the game between the hard - line and moderate factions in Iran will have an important impact on the capital market [4]. - Considering the volatile situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty of price increases, range trading can be considered on Friday. The support level for the main contract EC2604 is 1500 - 1550 points, and the resistance level is 2000 - 2050 points [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Conditions - The trading data of the eight major container shipping futures contracts are presented, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading values, open interests, and daily amplitudes [10]. 3.2 Second Part: Spot Market - On March 5, TCI (Tianjin - Europe) recorded $1484.33/TEU and $2510.33/FEU, with no day - on - day change. The quotes for the first half of March ($/FEU) of different alliances and shipping companies are provided [3]. 3.3 Third Part: Shipping Capacity - The shipping capacity scale of the world's top 10 liner companies and their new ship order scales are listed. For example, Mediterranean Shipping has a shipping capacity of 7,223,382 TEU and new ship orders of 2,183,776 TEU [15][16]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Suez Canal Navigation Situation - Diagrams related to container ship detours in the Red Sea, shipping volumes, and average waiting times are provided [16][17]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Ship Fuel Oil Situation - No specific content is provided other than the source information [20][21]. 3.6 Sixth Part: RMB - US Dollar Exchange Rate - A diagram of the RMB - US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar index is provided [24]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Key Economic Data Calendar and Reminders for Asia - Europe - The economic data and reminders for Asia - Europe from March 4 to March 6, 2026 are presented, including official manufacturing PMI in China, unemployment rate in the Eurozone, retail sales index in the Eurozone, and global supply chain pressure index [25].