宁证期货今日早评-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market supply of various commodities is in a state of change, with some increasing and some decreasing, and the demand side also shows different trends. The prices of commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation, showing different trends such as shock, rise, and fall [1][3][5] Summary by Commodity Short - fiber - This cycle, China's polyester staple fiber production was 158,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons and a month - on - month increase of 8.81%. The average comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.05%, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. After the festival, some enterprises restarted, the market supply gradually increased, but the improvement of terminal foreign and domestic trade was limited, resulting in more cautious market buying, and the finished product inventory accumulated. The cost continued to rise, and the cost side recently promoted the price to be stronger [1] Gold - As of Wednesday, traders expected the probability that the Fed would keep the current interest rate range unchanged by December to be 25%, higher than 17% last Friday. Due to the continuous war in the Middle East, the market's expectation of continuous inflation increase strengthened, and the attitude towards interest rate cuts was relatively pessimistic. Gold had increased short - term downward pressure and was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [1] Iron Ore - From February 23rd to March 1st, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.23 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.1469 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0328 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,000 tons. Recently, the iron ore supply - demand structure weakened month - on - month, and the price showed a shock pattern after rising and then falling [3] Coking Coal - The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 82.3%, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. The supply side was marginally loose, and the imported Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The demand side had support for the rigid demand of furnace materials, but the fundamental support was limited, and the disk was sorted out at a low level [4] Rebar - As of the week of March 5th, rebar production was 173,310 tons, an increase of 8,210 tons from last week, an increase of 4.97%. The supply - demand data was neutral. The terminal demand gradually recovered, but was still at a low level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East disturbed the market, and the cost of black commodities was boosted. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were still weak, and the disk was expected to be sorted out in a narrow range in the short term [5] Live Pigs - On March 5th, the national pig price was stable with a weak adjustment. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The downward space of live pig futures prices in the medium term was limited, the near - month contracts fluctuated at the bottom, and the far - month contracts fluctuated strongly, waiting for the cycle to reverse [6] Palm Oil - As of March 5th, the spot price of domestic palm oil had different changes. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased significantly in February, and Indonesia was expected to have a longer and more severe drought after April, threatening palm production. The short - term fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil strengthened, and the price was easy to rise but difficult to fall [6][7] Soybean Meal - As of March 5th, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices rose and fell. The lower support of the soybean meal 05 contract was strong, but the downstream feed enterprise inventory was sufficient, suppressing the short - term rise space. It was expected to fluctuate in a range with the price center of gravity moving up [7] Crude Oil - The oil market entered a stage of observing the substantial changes in the supply and demand of the crude oil market. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz on Chinese commodities was weakening. High - position long orders should be moderately reduced, and light - position long orders should be continued to hold [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side of overseas production areas was gradually entering the production - reduction period, and the downstream demand was not as expected. Technically, the recent capital reduced positions and the price fell. It was treated with a short - term bearish and medium - term shock mentality [9] Copper - The brass rod market showed a situation of "stagnation before the festival and slow recovery after the festival". The supply of refined copper in China remained high, and the spot circulation was abundant. After the Lantern Festival, the copper processing rate was expected to recover, but the terminal demand had not substantially recovered. The copper price was expected to maintain a shock [10][11] Cast Aluminum Alloy - On March 5th, the prices of domestic cast aluminum alloy in major regions generally rose. The supply of scrap aluminum was in short supply, and the cost support was strong. The demand side was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the overall transaction did not increase significantly. It followed the change of aluminum price [11] Nickel - Indonesia's RKAB quota target in 2026 was about 260 - 270 million tons, aiming to reduce the global nickel market surplus. The pricing reform was expected to raise the cost center of nickel ore. The supply was expected to tighten, but the demand was weak. The nickel price was expected to maintain a range - shock pattern [12] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang rose. The port inventory was basically stable, and some downstream enterprises resumed work after the festival. The safety risk in Iran led to an increase in device shutdowns. The port inventory was high and stable, and the demand recovered. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in China was stable. The production decreased month - on - month, and the inventory increased. The float glass inventory increased, and the downstream processing plant resumed work slowly. The domestic soda ash market was stable, and the supply was loose. It was expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [14] PVC - The price of PVC in East China rose. The upstream supply was abundant, and some downstream enterprises resumed work and purchased at low prices. The industry inventory might continue to accumulate, and the market price was expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [16] Thirty - year Treasury Bonds - During the Two Sessions, there might be fewer incremental policies, and the bond market would mainly fluctuate. It was expected to show a triangular shock convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [16] Silver - US economic data showed certain resilience, but the increase in inflation expectations suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the war suppressed risk appetite, which was bearish for silver. The downward momentum of silver increased, and it fluctuated passively following gold, and was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [17]