方正中期贵金属月度策略-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term market is affected by the rebound of the US dollar index and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. However, the underlying logic of the long - term precious metals bull market remains intact. Central banks' gold purchases continue, the US inflation is sticky, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds may decline further. Silver is likely to have a supply - demand gap for the sixth consecutive year, and the price rebound elasticity is expected to be stronger than that of gold. [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metal Market Data - The domestic precious metal market was volatile on March 5, 2026. The settlement price of Shanghai gold rose 0.37% to 1151.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.05% to 21658 yuan/kilogram. The London gold and silver markets also rebounded after hitting the bottom. As of 16:00, the spot gold price in London was 5161.84 US dollars/ounce, and the spot silver price was 83.653 US dollars/ounce. [13] - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the uncertain prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to decline in the short term, with a short - selling strategy. The support level is 1050 - 1100 yuan/gram, and the pressure level is 1250 - 1300 yuan/gram. For silver, with the same influencing factors, it is also expected to decline in the short term, with a short - selling strategy. The support level is 17000 - 18000 yuan/kilogram, and the pressure level is 23000 - 24000 yuan/kilogram. [14] 2. Precious Metal - Related Macroeconomic Data - On January 28, 2026 (EST), the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive interest - rate cuts since September 2025. Powell indicated that if "tariff inflation" peaks and falls, policy can be further relaxed, and raising interest rates is not the basic assumption for the next step. [3] - On February 11, 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non - farm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, much higher than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%. [3] - US consumers expect the annual price increase in the next year to be 4.2%, the same as last month. The long - term inflation expectation for the next 5 - 10 years rose to 3.4%, higher than the previous 3.2%. The consumer confidence index in January rose to 54, and the consumer expectation index reached a five - month high. [4] - In December 2025, the US PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The core PCE increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, lower than the estimate of 3%. The annual GDP growth in 2025 was 2.2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. [4] - In December 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In January 2026, the US PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. [5] - On February 20, 2026, US President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on all imported goods for 150 days. On February 17, he announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, to be raised to 25% on June 1. He also said that a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran would soon take effect. [5][7] - In 2025, China's gold consumption was 950.096 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57%. Gold jewelry consumption was 363.836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.61%. Gold bars and coins consumption was 504.238 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.14%. Industrial and other gold consumption was 82.022 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32%. The annual increase in domestic gold ETFs in 2025 was 133.118 tons, a 149.91% increase from 2024. By the end of December, the domestic gold ETF position was 247.852 tons. [6] - In January 2026, China's central bank's gold reserves were reported at 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces. This was the 15th consecutive month of gold purchase since November 2024, but the increase in January was at a low level for the 11th consecutive month. The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, and its gold reserves will increase to 700 tons. [6] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only mentions related charts. 4. Precious Metal Options Data Analysis - In the long term, central banks' gold purchases will continue, investment demand remains strong, the US debt level is rising, the US dollar's credit is damaged, and the US dollar index is expected to enter a long - term downward channel. The monetary attributes of gold and silver are gradually returning. [39] - In the short term, concerns about US tariff increases have resurfaced, the precious metals market has ended consolidation and broken upward. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. The real interest rate of US Treasury bonds may decline further. Geopolitical conflicts may intensify. [39] - For option single - leg strategies, in the long term, one can try to buy a small amount of far - month deep - out - of - the - money gold and silver call options. In the next stage, the implied volatility of precious metal options is expected to gradually rise, and one can try to construct a long - straddle strategy to bet on the increase in volatility. [39]