豆粕:反弹震荡,关注中东局势变化;豆一:现货稳中偏强,盘面调整震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-03-06 03:29
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal is in a rebound and oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East situation; the spot price of soybean is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price is in an adjustment and oscillation [1] - On March 5, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the crude oil futures market. However, due to the sufficient global soybean supply with the harvest of new soybeans in South America and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the upward space of soybean prices is still restricted [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4652 yuan/ton during the day session, down 14 yuan (-0.30%), and 4644 yuan at night, down 26 yuan (-0.56%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2843 yuan/ton during the day session, up 8 yuan (+0.28%), and 2858 yuan at night, up 21 yuan (+0.74%); CBOT soybean 05 closed at 1179 cents/bushel, up 12.75 cents (+1.09%); CBOT soybean meal 05 closed at 309 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars (-0.13%) [1] - Spot Prices: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery times; in East China, it is 3020 - 3260 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 3050 - 3260 yuan/ton. The net grain purchase price of soybeans in the Northeast region is around 4600 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial Data: The trading volume of soybean meal is 8.23 million tons per day, and the inventory is 71.72 million tons per week [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 5, CBOT soybean futures followed the upward trend of the crude oil futures market. The continuous Middle - East conflict has disrupted the supply, causing international crude oil prices to soar to the highest level since July 8, 2024 [1][3] - As of the week ending February 26, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 383,500 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average [3] - The good - quality rate of Argentine soybeans is 30%, only one percentage point higher than a week ago [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main contract futures prices during the day session on the report day [3]