有色金属日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical situation affects copper prices. Although risk - preference is affected, the key mineral resource attribute of copper provides support. Policy and industry factors also influence copper prices, with short - term support at the bottom [2][3]. - Aluminum prices are affected by geopolitical uncertainties and industry factors. With downstream resumption of work and production, the increase in aluminum ingot inventory is expected to slow down, and short - term prices still have strong support [4][5]. - For lead, although there is significant inventory accumulation at home and abroad, the current price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the smelting profit decline may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover later [7][8]. - Zinc is affected by factors such as the increase in TC of zinc concentrate, inventory accumulation, and concerns about the Iran conflict. During the conflict, zinc prices are expected to show a wide - range shock [9][10]. - Tin has strong market sentiment for bullish prices under the background of macro - easing and semiconductor price increases, but considering the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase high. It is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [11][12]. - Nickel is expected to rise slowly and oscillate in the medium - term due to the reduction of RKAB quota in Indonesia. In the short - term, it will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner to digest inventory pressure [13][14]. - Lithium prices have a high - opening and falling trend. The inventory reduction of domestic lithium carbonate has narrowed. Although the spot is in short supply during the lithium - battery peak season, it is necessary to be cautious about being bullish before the end of the downward trend [16][17]. - Alumina's inventory accumulation amplitude is shrinking, but the delivery pressure suppresses the upward movement of the price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the price may maintain a wide - range shock [19][20]. - Stainless steel has increased supply - side pressure due to inventory accumulation, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern [22][24]. - Cast aluminum alloy has strong short - term price support due to cost support, demand improvement from downstream resumption of work, and supply - side disturbances [26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of LME copper 3M contract fell 1.29% to $12,859/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,980 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 20,675 tons to 282,200 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by more than 10,000 tons [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - Geopolitical situation and industry factors support copper prices. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,700 - $13,100/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - The price of LME aluminum 3M contract fell 1.29% to $3,292/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position increased by 15,000 tons to 704,000 tons, and the aluminum ingot social inventory continued to increase [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a high level, the increase is expected to slow down. Due to geopolitical uncertainties and industry factors, short - term prices still have strong support. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,250 - $3,340/ton [5]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index fell 0.32% to 16,784 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose $3.5 to $1,948/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,625 yuan/ton, and the domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 300 tons to 67,200 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead ore inventory and TC have a slight increase, and the smelting plant's operating rate has declined. Although there is significant inventory accumulation, the current price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover later [8]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.15% to 24,549 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose $25 to $3,311.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,710 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 1,700 tons to 213,600 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic TC of zinc concentrate has a slight increase, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. Due to inventory accumulation and concerns about the Iran conflict, zinc prices are expected to show a wide - range shock during the conflict [10]. Tin Market Information - On March 5th, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 391,810 yuan/ton, a 2.32% decline. The supply of refined tin is tight, and the downstream demand has not been effectively reflected [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the market sentiment for bullish tin prices is strong, considering the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and inventory increase, it is not advisable to blindly chase high. It is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. The domestic main contract reference range is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference range is $47,000 - $54,000/ton [12]. Nickel Market Information - On March 5th, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 136,270 yuan/ton, a 0.83% decline. The spot price of nickel has a slight change, and the price of nickel iron continues to rise [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the medium - term, nickel prices are expected to rise slowly and oscillate due to the reduction of RKAB quota in Indonesia. In the short - term, it will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner to digest inventory pressure. The short - term reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $20,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC of lithium carbonate rose 1.37% to 154,373 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 155,860 yuan, a 1.83% increase. The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate increased by 3.5% to 13,914 tons, and the inventory decreased by 720 tons to 99,373 tons [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Lithium prices have a high - opening and falling trend. The inventory reduction of domestic lithium carbonate has narrowed. Although the spot is in short supply during the lithium - battery peak season, it is necessary to be cautious about being bullish before the end of the downward trend. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 142,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - On March 5th, the alumina index rose 0.64% to 2,813 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 5 yuan/ton to 2,610 yuan/ton, and the futures inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 336,300 tons [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - The inventory accumulation amplitude is shrinking, but the delivery pressure suppresses the upward movement of the price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the price may maintain a wide - range shock. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,105 yuan/ton, a 0.81% decline. The spot price of stainless steel is relatively stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 8,083 tons to 52,115 tons. The social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 1,094,800 tons [22][23]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply - side pressure has increased due to inventory accumulation, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern, and the reference range for the main contract is 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2604 rose 0.09% to 23,420 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased, and the inventory decreased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price increased by 500 yuan/ton [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Cast aluminum alloy has strong short - term price support due to cost support, demand improvement from downstream resumption of work, and supply - side disturbances [27].