申万期货品种策略日报：铂、钯-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] Core Viewpoint - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite short - term setbacks, the long - term bullish view is still valid, and investors should be aware of risks related to the nomination process and external market corrections [4] Summary According to Relevant Contents Futures Market - Platinum Futures: For pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 563.95, 558.80, and 550.95 respectively. The price increases are 3.55, 5.55, and 3.20, with increases of 0.63%, 1.00%, and 0.58% respectively. The trading volumes are 8223, 289, and 101, and the open interests are all 13003 [1] - Palladium Futures: For pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 428.00, 420.00, and 422.50 respectively. The price decreases are 3.95, 10.50, and 8.30, with decreases of 0.91%, 2.44%, and 1.93% respectively. The trading volumes are 3013, 81, and 27, and the open interests are all 4464 [1] Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The current price of Shanghai platinum is 554.25 + 2.57 = 556.82 yuan/gram, with a slight increase of 0.005%. The price of London platinum is 2149.00 - 18.00 = 2131.00 dollars/ounce, with a decrease of 0.008%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 871.00 + 34.00 = 905.00 yuan/gram and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively [1] - Palladium Spot: The current price of Chinese palladium remains at 421.00 yuan/gram, and the price of Russian palladium is 4179.76 - 266.68 = 3913.08 rubles/gram, with a decrease of 0.060% [1] Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The current NYMEX inventory is 585,530.93 ounces, a decrease of 1627.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts remain at 313,567.94 ounces. The turnover of the Gold Exchange is 7,106.69 million yuan, an increase of 253.3 million yuan, and the trading volume is 128.00 kilograms, an increase of 4.0 kilograms [1] - Palladium Inventory: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 202,180.58 ounces and 159,361.58 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - Related Indexes: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.04, 6,830.71, 4.13, 22,748.99, 47,954.74, and 6.90 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the US dollar index increased by 0.25, the S&P index decreased by 38.79, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.04, the Nasdaq index decreased by 58.49, the Dow Jones index decreased by 784.67, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.01 [1] - Related Derivatives: For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) and Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices and price changes are as follows: Shanghai gold 2604 is 1152.00, a decrease of 1.06; Shanghai gold 2606 is 1155.06, a decrease of 1.14; Shanghai gold 2608 is 1158.44, a decrease of 0.62; Shanghai silver 2604 is 21639.00, a decrease of 215; Shanghai silver 2606 is 21369.00, a decrease of 209; Shanghai silver 2608 is 21314.00, a decrease of 200 [1] Macroeconomic News - Geopolitical Event: The military strike by the US and Israel against Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed Personnel Change: US President Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected. His nomination has led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, which has affected platinum and palladium prices [2][4] - Fed Interest Rate Decision: The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's "appointed" director Milan [2] - China's Central Bank Policy: The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving payment services [3]