申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, and the demand outlook for US soybeans is unclear, causing the US soybean futures price to decline. The domestic soybean meal price is supported by the cost but restricted by weak demand. In the first quarter, the domestic soybean import volume decreases quarterly, and the supply pressure will ease. The near - term market needs to focus on the loading rhythm of US and Brazilian soybeans and the post - festival auction of imported soybeans. In the long - term, due to the bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the domestic price is expected to decline following the imported cost [2]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit a biofuel blending quota proposal for 2026 to the White House, which is expected to boost soybean oil demand. The production of Malaysian palm oil in February is estimated to decrease by 16.24%, and the export volume is expected to decline. Although the export slows down in February, due to seasonal production cuts, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in February is expected to continue to decline. The spill - over effect of the sharp rise in crude oil still exists, but the sentiment brought by recent geopolitical conflicts has cooled down, and the fundamentals of the oil and fat market lack the driving force for active upward movement. It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8370, 9002, 9486, 2829, 2363, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 20, 8, 22, - 7, - 17, and 26, with percentage changes of 0.24%, 0.09%, - 3.15%, - 0.25%, - 0.71%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are 18, 32, - 178, - 682, 857, 175, - 58, 46, 587, 1.25, 2.82, and 5366 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4070 (ringgit/ton), 1166 (cents/bushel), 63.47 (cents/pound), and 309 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were 19.0, - 5.3, 0.6, and - 5.8, with percentage changes of 0.47%, - 0.45%, 0.89%, and - 1.84% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 8650, 8630, 9000, 9000, 10110, 9860, 2990, 3050, 2510, 2480, 7200, 7300 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis values of the above - mentioned products are 280, 260, - 70, - 70, 621, 371, 147, 207, 192, 162, - 696, - 596 respectively. The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 170, 1470, 580 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 238, - 427, - 17, - 325, 246, 233 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,255, 0, 625, 38,829, 1,411, 900 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicates that last week's rainfall improved the growth conditions of Argentine soybeans and corn. The exchange expects the 2025/26 soybean production to be 48.5 million tons. Reuters' analysts predict that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production will be 48.11 million tons, with an estimated range of 47 - 49.5 million tons [2]. - AgRural lowers the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production from 181 million tons to 178 million tons. As of February 28, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is 41.7%, slower than 48.4% in the same period last year [2].