申万期货品种策略日报：天胶-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the price of natural rubber declined. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, the short - term strength of crude oil has driven the chemical products to perform strongly. However, the inflation and the adverse impact on the economy caused by geopolitical conflicts are expected to increase, and the liquidity risk has risen. Fundamentally, natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. Domestic production areas are in the off - season, and Thai production areas are also gradually entering the off - season. The low - production season generally lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply elasticity weakens, while the price of raw rubber is relatively firm. On the demand side, there is support for the resumption of post - holiday production. The start - up of all - steel tires is expected to be stable. In the short term, the market is still affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - Price and Fluctuation: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16555, 13370, and 14110 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were - 185, - 165, and 230, with percentage changes of - 1.11%, - 1.22%, and 1.66% respectively. The spreads between RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3185, 2445, and - 740 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 415, and - 395 compared to the previous values [2]. - Volume and Position: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 332143, 75669, and 174560 respectively. The positions were 147781, 64528, and 57079 respectively, with changes of - 4810, 923, and 3909 [2]. - Basis: The current basis of RU, the difference between mixed rubber and RU, and the difference between smoked sheet and RU were - 105, - 935, and 2845 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 140, - 1055, and 2660 [2]. Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16350, 16450, and 16400 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 0.91%, - 0.90%, and - 0.41% compared to the previous values. The prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 19400 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15620 and 16300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 0.61% and 0.31% [2]. - Downstream Spot: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 70.89, 58.53, and 69 Thai baht/kg respectively. The changes compared to the previous values were 0.01%, 0.00%, and 0.00% [2].