中东局势影响供给，警惕对消费的负反馈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the impact of the Middle - East crisis on the supply side has almost been priced in. Short - term aluminum prices face high risks. If the crisis eases, there may be a reversal of the previous risk premium. In the long run, if the crisis eases, the reduction in Qatar's electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is still difficult to recover, and overseas supply - demand will become more tight. The long - term upward trend of overseas electricity prices will continue to drive up aluminum prices from the cost side, and the long - term upward trend of aluminum prices will not change [6]. - For alumina, the Middle - East crisis has led to a large number of resales of overseas alumina orders, putting pressure on prices. The supply surplus pressure has eased due to the continuous production cuts of northern alumina plants, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. However, the high warehouse receipt inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and alumina prices lack upward momentum [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 25120 yuan/ton, with a change of 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminum spot premium/discount is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 24970 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 290 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 25080 yuan/ton, with a change of 720 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the aluminum spot premium/discount is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 5, 2026, the opening price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 25100 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 24815 yuan/ton, with a change of 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 25520 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24655 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 717295 lots, and the open interest was 251449 lots [2] Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.256 million tons, with a change of 27000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 319354 tons, with a change of 2278 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459125 tons, with a change of - 2000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 5, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2650 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2610 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2665 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2690 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2760 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 5, 2026, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2778 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2800 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.18%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2826 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2753 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 488920 lots, and the open interest was 308472 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 5, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 18400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 18800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 24300 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 62500 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 83600 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5]