EG负荷下降，基差明显走强

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [2] - Inter - period: 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage under supply influence [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, the ethylene glycol (EG) load has decreased, the de - stocking amplitude has increased, and prices have continued to rise [1] - The domestic EG supply has decreased from its high level, and imports are expected to further shrink under the influence of the situation in Iran. Demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking actions and textile and clothing export orders after the nominal tariff reduction [1] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,184 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton or 2.60% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,170 yuan/ton, up 196 yuan/ton or 4.93%. The spot basis of EG in East China was - 31 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars/ton. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 739 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 International Price Difference No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.002 billion tons, up 20,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 108,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 16,000 tons. The inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1]