下游开工回升，关注供应装置减负动态

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream start - up of polyolefins has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the dynamic of supply device load reduction. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an increase in international oil prices and propane prices, strengthening cost support and boosting polyolefin prices. In the short term, the expectation of cost increase and supply reduction may continue to drive up prices. For PE, although the planned maintenance in March - April is less and the start - up is still at a high level, the downstream demand has recovered after the festival, and the inventory of upstream petrochemicals has started to decline. For PP, the impact on overseas supply is small, mainly driven by cost increase and supply reduction. The loss of PDH profit may lead to the continuation of the PDH maintenance peak. The strategy is to cautiously go long and hedge LLDPE and PP at low prices [1][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 7393 yuan/ton (+38), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7458 yuan/ton (-48), the LL North China spot price is 7220 yuan/ton (+70), the LL East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (+100), the PP East China spot price is 7450 yuan/ton (+150), the LL North China basis is -173 yuan/ton (+32), the LL East China basis is -93 yuan/ton (+62), and the PP East China basis is -8 yuan/ton (+198) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE start - up rate is 86.9% (-1.0%), and the PP start - up rate is 74.4% (-1.1%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is -605.0 yuan/ton (+68.0), the PP oil - based production profit is -745.0 yuan/ton (+68.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -1885.4 yuan/ton (-32.5) [1] - Import and Export: The LL import profit is -279.0 yuan/ton (-558.6), the PP import profit is -553.6 yuan/ton (-183.4), and the PP export profit is -67.5 US dollars/ton (+40.2) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 18.9% (+8.8%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 40.3% (+15.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 37.7% (+8.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 59.6% (+12.0%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - Impact of Geopolitical Conflict: The appearance of empty oil tankers transporting crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz has affected the chemical industry. Although the conflict between the US and Iran has not eased, the supply of raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane remains uncertain. Domestic olefin enterprises may reduce their loads defensively, and some production lines have already taken actions [3] - PE Market: In the short term, the cost increase and supply reduction expectation may push up the plastic price. The planned maintenance in March - April is less, and the start - up is still at a high level. The downstream demand has recovered after the festival, and the inventory of upstream petrochemicals has started to decline [3] - PP Market: The impact on overseas supply is small, mainly driven by cost increase and supply reduction. The loss of PDH profit may lead to the continuation of the PDH maintenance peak. The downstream demand has improved, and the spot price has followed, with the basis strengthening [4] 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long and hedge LLDPE and PP at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [4]