警惕中东危机引发对衰退的担忧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral. [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral. [5] Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. [4] - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply is expected to increase, and the upward trend of TC is expected to continue. [4] - Supply pressure is prominent, domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season, and if the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$16.64 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 240 yuan/ton to 24,710 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 24,700 yuan/ton, with a premium of -115 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 240 yuan/ton to 24,700 yuan/ton, with a premium of -115 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On March 5, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,580 yuan/ton, closed at 24,520 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 153,707 lots, and the open interest was 82,611 lots. The highest price was 24,870 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,465 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 256,300 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3]