中辉有色观点-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long positions are recommended for holding, with long - term strategic allocation value remaining unchanged, and short - term attention to structural entry opportunities [1] - Silver: It is recommended to wait and see, as short - term participation is difficult and the risk - reward ratio should be focused on [1] - Copper: Long positions are recommended for holding, with a short - term high - level shock and a test of the 100,000 - yuan support level, and a long - term optimistic outlook [1][7] - Zinc: It is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm and wait for more macro guidance [1][11] - Lead: It is under pressure, with short - term rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: The rebound is under pressure [1] - Aluminum: The rebound is under pressure [1] - Nickel: The rebound is under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to go long on dips [1] - Polysilicon: It is in a low - level shock, and cautious participation is advised [1] - Lithium carbonate: It is under pressure, and wait for the signal of increased positions to stabilize [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is affected by factors such as Poland's possible gold sales, strong US data, and the situation in Iran. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [1][3][4] - The copper market is affected by factors such as the tight global copper ore supply, high copper prices, and inventory accumulation. It is in a short - term high - level shock, and long - term trends are still optimistic [5][6][7] - The zinc market has weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation restricting the upside space. In the short term, it is under pressure, and in the long term, it is recommended to go long on dips [9][10][11] - The aluminum market has a weakened supply disturbance, and inventory is a factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [12][14][15] - The nickel market is affected by Indonesia's policy and downstream stainless - steel inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips [16][18][19] - The lithium carbonate market has a marginal decrease in inventory reduction, and it is recommended to wait and see [20][22][23] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: International precious - metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also showed certain price changes [2] - Basic Logic: The US labor market is stabilizing, Poland's central bank may sell gold, and the gold market is affected by "triple shocks". However, the four underlying logics supporting the long - term bull market of precious metals remain unchanged [3][4] - Strategy Recommendation: Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged, with short - term support around 1120. Silver should focus on the support around 20000 [4] Copper - Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all showed certain increases. The trading volume and inventory also changed [5] - Industry Logic: The global copper ore supply is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in China has increased. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to obvious inventory accumulation, but the expected effective circulating copper inventory is tight [6] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, copper is in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to go long on dips after a full correction. The long - term trend is still optimistic. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99500, 102500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12800, 13400] dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market Performance: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc increased. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory changed [9] - Industry Logic: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [10] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, zinc is under pressure. In the long term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 24500], and for LME zinc is [3250, 3350] dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - Market Performance: The price of aluminum showed a slight change, and the inventory also changed [12] - Industry Logic: The supply disturbance in the Middle East has weakened. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has increased, and the downstream processing enterprises are gradually resuming production. The alumina market has an oversupply pattern [14] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23500 - 25500] [15] Nickel - Market Performance: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased. The trading volume and inventory also changed [16] - Industry Logic: The expectation of nickel ore tightening is weakened. The downstream stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [18] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to Indonesia's policy and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The price of the main contract LC2605 increased slightly, and the trading volume and inventory changed [20] - Industry Logic: The total inventory of lithium carbonate is likely to continue to decrease. The market supply - demand gap expectation is strengthened, and it may maintain a high - level and strong shock [22] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously in the range of [145000 - 160000] [23]