2026年政府工作报告点评：银行行业：宏观政策保持积极，行业基本面预期稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][17]. Core Insights - The 2026 government work report emphasizes a pragmatic and positive economic growth target, adjusting the GDP growth rate to 4.5% - 5%, which aligns with the long-term vision for 2035. This adjustment allows for structural adjustments, risk prevention, and reform [7]. - The report highlights the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to help mitigate risks in key areas. This is beneficial for banks as it supports asset growth and improves net interest income [8][9]. - The banking sector is anticipated to see a steady improvement in fundamentals, with city commercial banks expected to lead in performance due to high growth rates and stable asset quality [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking industry comprises 47 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 145,455.19 billion and a circulating market value of about 97,412.63 billion. The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 6.72 [3]. Economic Policy and Impact - The government plans to maintain a fiscal deficit rate of around 4%, with a slight increase in the deficit scale to 5.89 trillion, which includes various allocations for infrastructure and consumption [8]. - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and using structural tools to support key sectors, which is expected to ease pressure on banks' net interest margins [8][9]. Future Expectations - The banking sector's asset quality and credit costs are expected to remain stable, with a gradual improvement in net interest income growth anticipated [9]. - The report suggests that the continued influx of patient capital into the banking sector enhances its investment value [9].