贵金属数据日报-20260306

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar will continue to impact the precious metals market. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 5, 2026, London gold spot was $5166.38 per ounce, London silver spot was $83.34 per ounce, COMEX gold was $5173.50 per ounce, COMEX silver was $83.54 per ounce, AU2604 was 1152 yuan per gram, AG2604 was 21639 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1149 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) was 21060 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 4, 2026, the price of London silver spot decreased by 1.9%, COMEX silver decreased by 1.8%, AU2604 decreased by 0.1%, AG2604 decreased by 1.0%, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.2%, and AG (T + D) decreased by 1.9% [4] 2. Spread/Ratio - On March 5, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 579 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.77 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 148 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 53.24, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 61.93, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.06 yuan per gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 270 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 4, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread increased by 74.4%, the silver TD - SHFE active spread increased by 47.0%, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) decreased by 24.4%, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by 27.0%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.9%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 1.8%, AU2604 - 2602 decreased by 2.5%, and AG2604 - 2602 decreased by 2.2% [4] 3. Position Data - As of March 4, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1081.04 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15947.57316 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 211649 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 52472 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159177 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 32500 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 10240 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 22260 contracts. Compared with March 3, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 1.64%, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.21%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold decreased by 0.84%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 1.95%, the non - commercial net long position decreased by 0.46%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver decreased by 11.27%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 18.88%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 7.26% [4] 4. Inventory Data - On March 5, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105033 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 272721 kilograms. Compared with March 4, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 7.50%. On March 4, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 33040485 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 352219872 troy ounces. Compared with March 3, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.83% [4] 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 5, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 4, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.80, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.09%, the VIX was 21.15, the S&P 500 was 6869.50, and NYWEX crude oil was $76.11. Compared with March 4, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.17%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.27%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.85%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.74%, the VIX decreased by 10.27%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.78%, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 1.75% [4] 6. Market Review - On March 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.46% to 1152 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.96% to 21639 yuan per kilogram [4] 7. Impact Analysis - The market's concerns about inflation risks have eased as the Iranian military stated that it did not block the Strait of Hormuz and that it controls the passage rules. However, the conflict between the US and Iran continues, and the duration may exceed expectations. Therefore, inflation concerns and geopolitical games will continue to impact the precious metals market. On the other hand, US economic data such as ADP, non - manufacturing PMI, and weekly unemployment claims are all good, which further weakens the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index remains high. In addition, foreign media reported that the Polish central bank plans to sell gold reserves to fund the defense plan, putting overall pressure on precious metals prices [5] 8. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar will continue to impact the precious metals market, and gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5]