国际局势多变，油脂震荡运行

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - Due to the volatile international situation, the prices of the three major oils and fats are oscillating. Although the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to a firm international crude oil price, which provides some support for oil and fat prices, the supply and demand of oils and fats themselves have not changed much, so they are operating in an oscillating manner [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9070.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.76% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8370.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9489.00 yuan/ton, a change of +3.00 yuan or +0.03% [1] - Spot prices: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8940.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8580.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10090.00 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - Spot basis: The spot basis of palm oil was P05 - 130.00, a change of - 68.00 yuan; the spot basis of soybean oil was Y05 + 210.00, a change of +10.00 yuan; the spot basis of rapeseed oil was OI05 + 601.00, a change of - 3.00 yuan [1] - Market consultation: It is expected that the net increase in US soybean export sales will be 30 - 1100000 tons, with a net increase of 30 - 1000000 tons in the 2025/26 market year and 0 - 100000 tons in the 2026/27 market year; the net change in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be a decrease of 20000 tons to an increase of 26000 tons. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, Argentine soybean oil, and some other products have changed to varying degrees [2]