糖价内强外弱，郑棉冲高回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - Cotton: The USDA's outlook for the 2026/27 cotton season indicates a tightening supply - demand pattern globally. In China, the textile market is gradually recovering, and in the long - term, the cotton price center may rise due to factors like reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] - Sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, with short - to - medium - term downward pressure on raw sugar prices. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, but import policy may support the market [4] - Pulp: Global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, while domestic demand is expected to improve slightly. However, high port inventories keep the pulp market weak [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,396 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,583 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] - From February 20 - 26, the net signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 41% week - on - week and 50% compared to the four - week average. Shipments increased by 46% week - on - week and 43% compared to the four - week average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the 2026/27 global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten. Domestically, the textile market is recovering, and in the long - term, the cotton price center may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the cotton price may be affected by the internal - external price difference. Focus on the reduction of new - year planting area and target price subsidy policies [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5330 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5225 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India's Maharashtra state, 113 sugar mills had stopped crushing, with 97 still operating (102 less than the previous year). Cumulative cane crushing was 100.51 million tons, up 18.179 million tons from the previous year; sugar production was 9.5031 million tons, up about 1.7805 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar prices are under short - to - medium - term pressure due to global oversupply, but there are potential long - term supply - side benefits. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy may support the market [4] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the fundamental factors are bearish, the sugar price's downward space is limited. Focus on domestic import policy changes [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5250 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4910 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated slightly, with limited trading volume [7] Market Analysis - Global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and domestic demand is expected to improve slightly, but port inventories remain high [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The pulp market remains weak, and the price may consolidate at a low level in the short - term [9]