2026年政府工作报告点评：更加稳健务实，注重拉动内需

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy's overall tone adheres to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, aiming to integrate the effects of existing and incremental policies. The economic growth target is in line with expectations, set at 4.5% - 5% for this year, which is in line with the long - term goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 [4]. - Fiscal policy maintains its strength and focuses on optimizing the structure. The deficit rate is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. Special bonds are issued for various purposes, and fiscal expenditure focuses on boosting consumption, investing in people, and ensuring people's livelihoods [5]. - Monetary policy continues to be moderately loose, with an emphasis on optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools. It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 interest rate cuts of 10 - 20bp and about 1 reserve requirement ratio cut this year [6]. - Industrial policy aims to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, and combining short - and long - term measures [7]. - For the bond market, the current "loose money" environment is expected to continue, with limited upward risk of bond yields. The annual interest rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.60% - 2.0%. A strategy of increasing allocation at high valuation correction points is recommended, along with attention to band - trading opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Government Work Report Highlights - Economic Growth Target: The expected economic growth target for this year is 4.5% - 5%, which is in line with the 2035 long - term goal and shows the policy's stability and continuity [4]. - Fiscal Policy: The deficit rate is about 4%, the deficit scale is 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. Special bonds include 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special bonds, 30 billion yuan of special bonds for bank capital replenishment, and 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds. Fiscal expenditure focuses on boosting consumption, investing in people, and ensuring people's livelihoods. The support for consumer goods trade - in decreases from 30 billion yuan last year to 25 billion yuan, and a 10 billion yuan fiscal - financial coordinated special fund is established to promote domestic demand [5]. - Monetary Policy: Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, optimize and innovate structural monetary policy tools. It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 interest rate cuts of 10 - 20bp and about 1 reserve requirement ratio cut this year. The central bank will also pay attention to policy coordination and consistency [6]. - Industrial Policy: Focus on stabilizing the real estate market. In the short - to - medium term, deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, optimize the supply of affordable housing, and play the role of the "guaranteed delivery" white - list system. In the long - term, continue to promote the construction of basic systems and supporting policies for the new real estate development model [7]. 3.2 Investment Strategy - The expected economic growth target set in the government work report is in line with expectations. For the bond market, the current "loose money" environment will continue, and the upward risk of bond yields is limited. The annual interest rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.60% - 2.0%. A strategy of increasing allocation at high valuation correction points is recommended, along with attention to band - trading opportunities [8]. 3.3 Comparison of Government Work Goals over the Years - GDP: The expected GDP growth rate in 2026 is 4.5% - 5%, compared with about 5% in 2025 and 2024 [12]. - Fiscal Indicators: The deficit rate in 2026 is 4%, the same as in 2025 but higher than 3% in 2024. The fiscal deficit scale is 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase from 5.66 trillion yuan in 2025 and 4.06 trillion yuan in 2024. The scale of local government special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan, the same as in 2025 but higher than 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024. The scale of special bonds is 1.6 trillion yuan, lower than 1.8 trillion yuan in 2025 and higher than 1 trillion yuan in 2024 [12]. - Consumption: In 2026, the government will implement a special consumption - boosting action, including promoting commodity consumption upgrading, with 25 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special bonds for consumer goods trade - in, and establishing a 10 billion yuan fiscal - financial coordinated special fund to promote domestic demand [5][13].